Can Heat Dethrone East Champs?
The Boston Celtics defeated the Dwyane Wade's Miami Heat and LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers en route to a trip to the NBA Finals, but now Wade and James have joined forces in South Beach to create the biggest threat to Boston's hold on the Eastern Conference championship. Meanwhile, the Celtics added two former Heat players this off-season, but can this bolstered Heat team beat the aging Boston team in a seven-game series?
Rajon Rondo shone throughout the playoffs, and Miami did not upgrade defensively at the point guard spot. He plays on the Team USA team right now, and he should only continue to flourish into one of the League's best point guards. He will be a handful for any opposing coach to defend, but Heat coach Erik Spoelstra could defend him more effectively than he did last year.
Kobe Bryant defended Rondo very well in the Finals, giving him a lot of room to get off a jump-shot, but closing off driving lanes to the basket. Sure, it gives Rondo nice looks for entry passes into the post, but Rondo doesn't have a respectable jump-shot and isn't going to it this summer with Team USA. Spoelstra should have Wade defend Rondo and give him a lot of space. Mario Chalmers would then defend Ray Allen, the 35-year-old guard. 
In my playoff preview post, I said that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett also pose problems for the Heat. Miami's additions of James and Chris Bosh come into play here. During Boston's defeat of Cleveland in the conference semifinals, Pierce shot just 34.5 percent from the field against James, a two-time All-NBA Defensive Team selection. James has the athleticism to defend Pierce, and with less of a scoring load, James should devote more effort to defense. And while James will be a small forward on defense, he will be a point guard on offense. He is much quicker than Pierce and will demand of some of the other Celtic defenders' attention. Mike Miller's and Eddie House's shooting will become a factor here, and Wade and Bosh will also get open looks from James' creation of offense.
As I have always said, the way to make the Miami Thrice click is to have James as the point guard with the ball in his hands, Wade as the off-ball scorer he was during the Olympics and Bosh as the high-post option. Heat President Pat Riley signed Bosh because he needed a player who could be very effective around the rim. Unlike Michael Beasley and Udonis Haslem, Bosh has the length to contest Kevin Garnett's shots. At this point in KG's career, I'd take a 26-year-old Bosh over a 34-year-old Garnett. Like Bosh, KG is still an efficient high-post scorer, but he's lost some of his explosiveness.
Miami's crunch-time five should be James, Wade, Miller, Bosh and Haslem. Wade would guard Rondo, Miller would be on Allen, James would check Pierce, Bosh would guard Garnett and Haslem would defend Jermaine O'Neal or Kendrick Perkins (Shaquille O'Neal's woes at the free-throw line will keep him on the bench to close games). But although Shaq will be on the bench to close games, he could come into the season very motivated.
In my previous post, I said that Shaq would need to adjust to playing without the ball with Boston. He needs to get used to being the fifth option offensively, but he will probably buy into Celtics coach Doc Rivers' system. Shaq was energetic in 2008-09, playing in 75 games while averaging 18 points and eight rebounds and earning a Third-Team All-NBA Selection. More importantly, Shaq didn't unceremoniously leave Phoenix or Cleveland like how he left Orlando, Los Angeles and Miami. Neither his personality nor his skill set would fit in with the Heat, but Shaq knows that these next two years will be his last two in the NBA. He will write the last chapter of his legacy during these next two years.
Shaq wants more rings than Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan, the two other future Hall-of-Fame players who have dominated the League after Michael Jordan retired from the Bulls in 1998. He will be fine with his role with the Celtics and will be a tough match-up against Joel Anthony for the 20 minutes he's on the floor. Boston may even exploit that match-up and feed the ball to Shaq a few consecutive times down the court. Spoelstra may have to double-team Shaq, and I'd send James as the second defender. At 6-foot-8 and 260 pounds, he has enough size to interfere with Shaq's vision of the passing lanes. He also has the speed to recover to a perimeter player if Shaq passes out.
Keep in mind that Shaq will only play 20 minutes per game, though, and if Boston does re-post him after James recovers to Pierce, then I'd live with Shaq getting the attempt. He can dominate a quarter or maybe even a half, but his season high last year was 22 points.
The Celtics also lost Tony Allen, who was the team's designated perimeter stopper, this off-season. Rivers hopes he can get the same out of Marquis Daniels, but Wade should dominate Allen, Pierce or whoever the Celtics throw at him. As Wade continues to improve his game – particularly his outside jump-shot – he will become increasingly difficult to defend. Heat fans could see a lot of zone this season.
With Miami's added offensive firepower and defensive tools, such as James' athleticism and Bosh's length, the Heat should beat Boston in a seven-game series. However, the Celtics will be motivated to win another championship and the Big Four and company should win at least two games.
