The Best Conference Tournament
The Big Ten. Wait, the Big Ten?
After the conference season settled, well, nothing, 4 teams (primarily will duke it out for a conference tournament title, and a couple could possibly get a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament).
Interestingly, going by the Log5 method (you can read the whole method here) those guys pictured are the favorites to win the conference tournament, with about a 34% chance. Purdue is next with a 26% chance, and my predicted champion Ohio State is 3rd with a 24% chance.
The Badgers have one distinct advantage: While the Big 10 may be slow, the Badgers are sloooooooooow. Their 60 possessions per game is 340th in the country. You often hear commentators talking about how the Badgers don't get rattled, often crediting a Senior point guard or the steady hand of Bo Ryan. But I have a different theory. Why don't the Badgers get rattled (or at least appear to not get rattled)? The pace at which they play. If you think about it, whenever a game is getting a little helter skelter, someone bringing the ball up the floor or the coach will put his two palms towards the ground as if to say "slow down" (or perhaps more accurately settle down).With Jon Leuer back, the Badgers have a good inside presence (although, not on the offensive glass) that helps solidify Wisconsin's 8th best efficiency defense and best defensive rebounding team. By the way, if someone can look at their KenPom page and tell me how they are 8th in defense feel free to let me know.
My pick of Ohio State was for one reason and one reason only: Evan Turner. Turner led the conference in scoring and rebounding, and was 2nd in assists. He used over a third of the Buckeyes' possessions, which was 6th in the nation, and his assist rate (which was 5th best nationally) was 18% better than his turnover rate. About the only thing Turner doesn't do well is shoot threes, but when you can get into the lane as well as he can and kick it out to Jon Diebler (42%) who cares.
But the team with perhaps the most to gain is Michigan State. A good tournament gets them a solid three seed, and possibly a 2. A poor tournament gives them a four seed and a date with Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky or the random 4th #1 seed. While the Spartans have been good this year, a trip to the Elite 8 seems unlikely if they have to go that route.
In any event, with 4 teams who have a legitimate shot to win it all, and Illinois and Minnesota looking to salvage their tourney hopes, Conseco Fieldhouse is the venue you need to have your eyes on this weekend.
