When Lawrence Tynes sent the football through the uprights to win the NFC Championship game, I knew exactly the words that would reverberate through media outlets in the morning: revenge.  After the legendary drama that ensued from the underdog Giants dethroning the undefeated Patriots four years ago, it would be nearly impossible to look at Sunday's matchup without seeing the backdrop of XLII.  In the following days, those involved with the game, downplayed that storyline, spilling cliche's that what happened four years ago is history, that these are two different teams, and that the only thing that matters is the 60 minutes on the clock.  Despite the truth of those sentiments, I think it's all but certain that the millions watching Super Bowl XLVI will be inundated with highlights of "The Helmet Catch" and "18-1".  Yes, the "Revenge Bowl" will soon be underway.

As the 2011 Divisonal Round Playoffs came to a conclusion with the Patriots fresh off a defeat of the Denver Broncos, the Baltimore Ravens on tap, an the New York Giants looming on the NFC side of the bracket, something incredible clicked inside my head.  Like Kiefer Sutherland's kid in "Touch", all the numbers suddenly came together and created an unbelievable roadmap.  However, before I get to that, let me take a step back and return to the beginning...

For four seasons, the New England Patriots held an incredible amount of meaning for me.  In 2001, with a nation on its knees, the underdogs wearing red, white, and blue overcame unspeakable odds to bring America to its feet.  The next year, the team faltered under the weight of championship expectations, but rose again in the final seconds of the season with yet another game-winning kick from Adam Vinatieri.  Fast forward to 2003, and the Patriots win a second Super Bowl off that same kicker's foot, repeating the unbelievable ending from XXXVI and validating that this team was not a fluke.  In 2004, the team that everybody had counted out and overlooked built a dynasty by working hard, staying humble, and playing as a team.  Those seasons were simply inspiring at their core.  They were storybook-esque in their drama and symmetry. They were the stuff that Tim Tebow's made of, minus the nauseating 24/7 hype machine.  And then, things.. just sort of... fell... apart...  no comments

Each game is its own evolution.  We know that the Giants-Packers and Giants-49ers games from the regular season ended with a loss, and yet completely different games unfolded in the playoffs.  So what value is there in taking a look back at the first Giants-Patriots game?  Well, you certainly get a lot of ideas about what will happen on individual plays.  The overall game will be different, but you see individual players who will make their mark again.

Gronkowski (high ankle sprain injury for Super Bowl)-Welker-Hernandez are the Patriots' three-headed monster.  The Giants saw them.  But the Patriots did not see Nicks in the Nicks-Manningham-Cruz three-headed monster.  That is a huge difference.  To be fair, Jake Ballard was all-world in that Week 9 game, and his presence in the Super Bowl will unfortunately be tepid, given the knee injury that he will be playing with.  The Giants were also without Bradshaw.  Interestingly, Bill Parcells, in reviewing the matchup Wednesdayy on ESPN, singled out Ahmad Bradshaw as a player who could change the balance with his running and pass-catching.  Given how well Bradshaw can do in space, we agree wholeheartedly that #44 must be given opportunities to go 1 on 1 vs NE's LBers, who are weak in pass coverage.

Someone (Simms?) earlier this week said that high ankle sprains mean that you get enough medical attention to come out in H1 and play somewhat (with varying degrees of effectiveness), yet at halftime the ankle stiffens up and you are done!  And let's remember that this is a 30 minute half, not a 12 minute half, so the thinking here is that the Giants Safeties will have to contend with Gronkowski for the first half, and thereafter he is not going to make an impact.  THIS IS HUGE.  Combined with the way the Giants typically get off to slow starts offensively, if they can just stay in the game and come out with a push by halftime, they will have a very BIG halftime advantage if the Patriots' TE is no longer able to make an impact.  With only Hernandez and Welker left to cause problems, the Giants defense should be able to assert itself and tip the scales.  The Giants offense was shut out in the first half of that game, but Fewell's defense kept them in it.  Earth to Gilbride, earth to Gilbride, please attack and play with urgency in H1 instead of the typical shadow boxing we always seem to get in H1. no comments

First it was Dwight Freeney.

Then it was Maurkice Pouncey.

Now it’s Rob Gronkowski.

Three superstars, three bum ankles.

The curse of the Super Bowl high ankle sprain bit again, this time against the Patriots All-World tight end who we thought was made of pure steel.

Gronk’s ankle has been the talk of the town in Indianapolis. When he showed up to Media Day without a boot, it sent shockwaves through Twitter and ESPN.

Osi Umenyiora said he doesn’t think Gronk will play on Sunday.

That’s just plain stupid.

Gronk will dress and be on the field, but the true question is, how effective will he be?

Number 87 is quite possibly the most important player on offense outside of Tom Brady.

The 6-foot-6, 265-pound goofball/superhero is the definition of a throwback tight end.

Sure, Jimmy Graham of the Saints posted some ridiculous receiving numbers, but have you seen that guy block? How many highlights have you seen of Antonio Gates pancaking Terrell Suggs on a chip block?

That’s what separates Gronk from the rest. The second-year kid takes pride in blocking and just happens to be an excellent receiver.

Because of his size and strength, Gronk draws a double team on almost every play. He can beat you down the seam with his speed, and is a beast in the open field…when healthy.

Gronkowski has been healthy his entire NFL career and without a true diagnosis of his injury, none of us can be sure about how effective he’ll be in the Super Bowl.

Luckily, there is some precedent for players playing through the pain of the high ankle sprain.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger battled through a gruesome ankle injury this year, and I’d argue his injury looked worse and his position requires a little more agility, especially moving in the pocket.

Freeney played in the Super Bowl against the Saints in ’09 and managed to get a sack in the first half.

One factor that doesn’t help the Patriots is the Super Bowl halftime show, which can run for almost 30 minutes.

With such a long layover, the adrenaline and perhaps any pain-killing injections will have time to wear off which could limit his effectiveness in the second half.

If Gronk is playing at less than 75 percent and is used more as a decoy, it’ll be a tough task for New England to generate offense.

Besides Gronk, the only consistently effective receivers are Wes Welker and Aaaron Hernandez. I have faith that Deion Branch will step up in the spotlight, but he can often disappear in games.

The key for the Giants defense is to be physical at the line of scrimmage with Welker and Branch and to assign their best coverage linebacker or safety on Hernandez. If they’re successful in doing that, it’ll be a long day for the Patriots.

no comments

The New England Patriots are favored by 2.5 points over the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. 

In Week 9, I wrote this about New England’s matchup with the Giants when the Pats were favored by 9 at home:

“I can’t see this game being a blowout for the Pats. I’ll pick the Giants to cover the spread, and I even like them enough to endorse the moneyline at +300 if you want to take a shot at a huge payout in a parlay.”

In a year where my predictions were only slightly more accurate than Rex Ryan’s, it’s good to remember that I had at least one moment of clarity. My overall record (47-47-4) was the worst in my four years of picking games, but I still did well in determining the best value in New England’s contests (11-7). This is the most important week not only for Patriots fans, but also for sports bettors (if you can get a seat in any sportsbook in Vegas this week, more power to ya). Let’s take a look at a few of the factors that could tip the balance in this game.

Turnovers, Turnovers, Turnovers

The Giants made their way past the Packers and 49ers on the strength of a +5 turnover margin. The Giants offense has just one turnover in their three playoff games. When these two teams met in Week 9, the Pats turned the ball over four times. Whichever team wins the turnover battle will likely win the game.

Neutral Field is Anything but Neutral

This time around, the Patriots do not have the benefit of homefield advantage. Hell, given the hatred of the Patriots in Indy and the fact that the Giants have Peyton’s little brother under center, it’s likely to feel more like an away game than a neutral field. The Pats were 6-2 on the road, but they played just two games indoors on turf. The Patriots won both games against non-playoff teams (Cowboys and Colts), but were outgained in both games.

Patriots Need to Adapt on Offense

Nagging injuries to Vollmer and Gronkowski will force the Patriots to evolve on offense. The Pats like to get the ball out quick, especially against teams with a good pass rush. The Giants will try to take away the short and intermediate routes to give their pass rush a chance to get to Brady, and they will definitely do their best to get a body on Gronkowski at the line of scrimmage to re-route him on his gimpy ankle. The Patriots will have to get creative on offense, running a lot of delayed releases to the tight ends and taking shots down the field. They also need to run the ball more to take advantage of a Giants run defense that ranked 19^th on the ground. That’s a much different recipe than we’ve seen from the Patriots this year, but it’s probably their best shot at victory.

On all three of these counts, the Giants have a significant advantage they did not have in Week 9. If the Patriots were healthy, I’d like their chances. However, if Gronkowski is limited, it makes the New England offense a lot more human. But to hell with all that nonsense. You know what the Giants don’t have? Myra. That’s right, I said it. Ghosts are real, and they help football teams. Don’t believe me? Watch. 

I’m taking the Patriots.

Exotic wagers

If Vegas is good at one thing during Super Bowl week, it’s getting gambling addicts and other miscreants to take a shot on ridiculous wagers. And after the year I’ve had, I’m inclined to take my chances at more than a few. Really, how could it get any worse?

First team to call a timeout: Giants (-110)

This one is free money. From the time that the ball is spotted, it typically takes the Patriots offense approximately six seconds to call a play, get set, run the play and call the next one. With the Giants, there are roughly 5-6 times a game where the play is called into the huddle and Eli looks at the sideline as if they asked him to wear a dress and matching heels during the postgame press conference.

Distance of the game’s first punt: 44.5 yards (under)
With these two offenses, a three-and-out is not terribly likely, so chances are good that any punt will come from near midfield. Weatherford and Mesko combined for 9 touchbacks on the entire season. Stats like these are clearly the real reason people read this column.

Longest TD scored in the game: 49.5 yards (over)

The way these two secondaries tackle? With the athletes these two teams have on offense? Yeah, no thanks.

What will Kelly Clarkson wear to sing the National Anthem? Anything else (-300)

Gear from the Colts, Giants, Patriots or NFL Super Bowl were the other options. Burlap Sack was not an option. If you can get +200 or better on Burlap Sack, it starts to become very attractive.

Will Madonna wear an NFL jersey or shirt during any point of the halftime show? No (-400)

If she’s wearing clothes, we’re all winners.

Will Madonna be wearing fishnet stockings at any point during the Super Bowl halftime show? (-120)

If she does, I will vomit out of my eye sockets.

no comments

No player is bigger than the team.

Does any franchise live by that motto more than the Patriots?

Even with a subpar performance by Tom Brady, the Patriots scratched and clawed their way to an AFC Championship victory over the Ravens (props to Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff).

For a 2011 team that saw Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth don Patriots uniforms, these offseason acquisitions turned out to be total busts.

However, there were three under-the-radar free agent signings that paid big dividends to this Super Bowl run. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the 10 most important players that got us to the big dance.

1. Tom Brady: Any list of MVPs begins and ends with Tom Brady. With no deep threat, a below average running game and an even worse defense, the three-time Super Bowl winner put the team on his back. Brady finished second in yards to Drew Brees and had an incredible 19:2 touchdown to interception ratio during the second half of the regular season. Oh, the Pats went 8-0 during that stretch. no comments

 
Well, all the practices, film study, playbooks, walk-throughs, team meetings, and more is now complete for these prospects. It's been a long week for myself, my fellow NFL and non-NFL scouts here in attendance for the week and the game along with these players.

For most of these prospects, this game was more than just the "last day" of this week. It was a chance to play through full contact, to show what they learned through the week, and got to execute an NFL gameplan. From the pressbox, here are my scouting notes from the 2012 Senior Bowl. 

-Before I get to the scouting, I want to say how great it was seeing just about every player be so willing to give fans (mostly kids) autographs, pictures, and their compassion after the game. I noticed particularly (myself) thatBobby Wagner, William Vlachos, Matt McCants, Chris Rainey, and Marvin Jones were OUTSTANDING with the mad (and unexpected) rush of fans to the field. I did notice, however, that Zach Brown simply left the field, refused to sign many kids autographs, and seemed unwilling to have fan interaction. That doesn't bode well for my scouting report, as how he act to common people (in my opinion) is as true of a testament of a persons' character. no comments

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Indianapolis Colts have found their new offensive coordinator, Bruce Arians. Arians was the offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers from 2007-2011. How good was the Steelers offense during Arians' tenure?

UPDATE: Former offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen has been offered to stay with the Colts as wide receivers coach.

	Overall	Passing	Rushing
2007	17th	22nd	3rd
2008	22nd	17th	23rd
2009	7th	9th	19th
2010	14th	14th	11th
2011	12th	10th	14th

On thing to remember about 2010 is that Ben Roethlisberger missed 4 games during the season serving a suspension for violating the NFL's conuct policy. It certainly had an impact on offensive production for a quarter of the season. no comments

Lucas Oil Stadium has been called "The House that Peyton Built." It has been suggested by many that, were it not for the success of the Peyton Manning-led Colts, the franchise would have been relocated to Los Angeles years ago. Peyton Manning is universally accepted as one of the best players in NFL history, and is - without a doubt - the greatest player in the Indianapolis Colts 28-year history.

All of those facts, combined with the roots Manning has willingly and eagerly planted in Indianapolis, makes one question the Colts organizational decision to treat Peyton Manning as if the mere mention of his name would elicit a reaction of Beetlejuice-ian proportions. If you have listened to the three "Grigson Era" press conferences: the Grigson hiring, the Caldwell firing, and the Pagano hiring, you have noticed that everyone in the Colts management team - owner and CEO Jim Irsay, General Manager Ryan Grigson and Head Coach Chuck Pagano - is more willing to mention their personal lives, their crying habits, and Rob Lowe's twitter account than Peyton Manning's name. no comments

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have agreed to a 5 year contract with Greg Schiano, the head coach of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Glazers have proved they do think outside the box, and the smoke screen they put up interviewing the oldest coaches possible was a brilliant move to gather info from respected sources and throw away attention from the two college coaches the Bucs went after.  

Schiano took over a Rutgers team that was a laughing stock of a football program. Rutgers was a joke when Schiano took over in 2001, and he turned them into a respectful program.

Dont worry about his over all record of 68-67, most of that from from the first 3 years when Rutgers was a joke. He has been coaching at 56-28 over the last 6 years. To compare, Rutgers was lower on the todem pole than UCF is in the state of Florida. 

Schiano is a defensive coach, much like the hire of Tony Dungy, the Glazers are going defense again. But the best part of the hire? Its past time to move on past the "tampa 2", Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden days of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is a clean slate; no assistant coaches are left, its a clean cut from the Bucs past, but it doesnt alienate any former Buccaneers like the hiring of Sherman would have been. 

Schiano comes with the glowing review from Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. Many others have given glowing reviews, including the one Buc who played his college ball with the new coach, Jeremy Zuttah. Another great review came from future free agent Ray Rice of Baltimore, who played for the man.

Schiano was the U of Miami Hurricanes Defensive coordinator during the Hurricanes last national championship run. no comments

The Pagano Era is upon us.

The move will be met with almost universal acclaim. Chuck Pagano is a fiery defensive minded coach who is sure to be popular with fans and media.

Pagano is a safe hire, and given the nightmare scenarios of Childress and Tressel, Colts fans will be almost universally content. Those who were unhappy with the Indy style of defense and the more reserved manner of Jim Caldwell and Tony Dungy will no doubt find much to love in Chuck Pagano.

He is a hire with upside, but there is much we don't know about him.

• We don't know how good a defensive strategist he is. Pagano did well with the Ravens, leading to a #3 ranking in scoring in the NFL. On the other hand, it was the 4th straight year the Ravens were 3rd in scoring with 3 different coordinators.

• Will Pagano be like other Ravens assistants who became head coaches? That list includes: Marvin Lewis, Rex Ryan, Mike Nolan, Jack Del Rio, and Mike Singletary.  Apparently, being an assistant with the Ravens is not a pass key to future NFL success.

• Let's assume that Pagano can coach and coordinate a defense at an elite level. We have very little evidence that it's true (and none that it's not, by the way), but I'm willing to take it on faith. We have absolutely no idea if he can do any of the other things a head coach has to do. For instance, can he:
  • Organize, manage, and lead a staff
  • Manage a game plan
  • Master timeout strategy
  • Handle media pressure
  • Does he understand the dangers of punting and kicking on fourth and short
  • Run a training camp
  • Handle locker room conflict'
  • Deal with winning
  • Deal with losing

Chuck Pagano has never been a head coach. He has only been a coordinator three times (twice in college). He has no offensive experience at all.

He's a blank.

We know his players love him. We know the locker room loved Caldwell too. no comments