-- Overall, I enjoyed a decent first half in fantasy baseball this year. Of the three teams I am managing this year, my team in the Hurler league is faring the worst. The Sofa Kings are tied for fifth place in the 12-team league, 19.5 points out of first place. I am completely convinced that this is due to the engagement level of the league's owners. It seems like every time I look for a player to pick up, he has been rostered already for a week or more, sometimes longer. This is a testament to the owners in the league, to whom I must tip my hat at this point. There is a lot of baseball left to be played, but getting into the top tier of this league will be a welcome challenge. Kudos to the owners of Ballin' in the Bay (Eric) and the Lucky Strikes (Glenn), as they have set themselves apart from the rest of the pack. Good luck to everyone else in the league as we all try to claw to respectability.
-- Aside from the Hurler league, I have two other teams -- a keeper league team and a money league team on CBS. In both of these leagues, the core of my team is comprised of many of the same players. I have been pleasantly surprised at the rebound that both David Wright and Joey Votto have respectively made. A case can be made for NL MVP for either of them, depending on your rooting interest. One huge disappointment this year has been Matt Kemp, whom I actually drafted instead of Miguel Cabrera in my money league. I felt that I could pass on Cabrera because of my love for Votto, but Kemp has not justified his draft slot. Big mistake there. Kemp is striking out at a ridiculous pace and is not stealing enough bases to keep himself in the rarified air of the first round. Then I read about him arguing with coaches about backing up second base. Really, Matt? Frustrating to say the least. Adam Dunn is another guy I have on two teams and his power is once again a hot commodity. He is as consistent as they come, and when his average stays above .270 he doesn't hurt you anywhere except SBs. Give me Dunn and I will work around his deficiencies; I love the reliability. Wright, Dunn, Votto and Carlos Quentin all being on fire over the last month has made watching my teams enjoyable again, I hope to be able to say the same thing come September.
-- Another guy that I loved this year but have now come to curse is Grady Sizemore. He had so much promise this year as a bounceback candidate but has simply shown himself to be not worth the risk of a high round pick. I wish him the best possible recovery, but perhaps he should have considered activities other than snapping pictures of his junk and mailing them all over the interwebs. Couldn't he have asked Greg Oden how that turns out? The other guy I wasted a high pick on this year was Brian Roberts. I thought I could squeeze one more year of decent production out of him, but his balky back and series of treatments have not made him ready to contribute anything this year. He's been on my DL slot all year long. Miguel Montero? Another guy whose DL time has not justified his draft slot. Luckly, I backed him up with Carlos Santana, Miguel Olivo, and Mike Napoli -- all solid options that were had late in most mixed league non-keeper drafts.
-- Oh, and I would like to issue a huge "screw you" to A's manager Bob Geren and Rajai Davis. From June 20th until July 6th, Rajai had gone 2-for-his-last-31 and was relegated to the bench with the return of Coco Crisp. This past Saturday, while on both my benches, he goes 4-for-5 with a home run, 5 RBI, 3 runs scored and a SB. Screw both of you for that.
--I am going to pat myself on the back, however, for pointing out the lunacy of drafting Joe Mauer in the first round. Was the decline of his power greatly exaggerated? Not at all, Target Field has proven to be anything but a bandbox. Mauer's 2010 mid-year numbers (.293, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 1 SB) make Miguel Olivo (.325, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 4SB) look like 2009's Joe Mauer. Last year, the Twins' home park was 8th in the park factor metric for home runs at 1.11. This year, Target field is 29th at .576. I took the under on this HR total, I hope you did too.
-- Miguel Olivo owners, enjoy this ride, he'll be ridiculously overvalued next year. The 2011 Olivo will be the 2010 Miguel Montero.
-- Does anyone else remember all the Matt Weiters hype last year? How's that working for everyone?
-- From this point forward I would like to name the fantasy baseball phenomenon of adding an otherwise unownable guy the moment he gets an almost no-hitter/perfect game/etc. the Wood…..and the inevitable dropping of that player when reality sets in and the realization occurs that the aforementioned performance was an isolated event is now known as the Galarraga. I'll leave it up to Bob to define the "Braden" ...
So, the second half holds a ton of promise. There are lots of mega-hyped rookies (Heyward, Posey, Santana, Bumgarner) who have already proven their value and will be major contributors going forward, so I wouldn't expect a ton of talent to come up during September. Whom do I like in the second half and why? Here are five possibilities for buy low options:
--Ted Lilly: It is almost a certainty that the Cubs will look to move him for salary relief and if that place becomes CitiField, park advantage will be measurable. He's a fly ball pitcher so understand the risk. I'd hop on the speculation here and hope an AL team doesn't swoop in. If they do, avoid him like a televised, contrived hour-long pukefest.
--Gordon Beckham: How much would I pay for him? Nothing, but he should be on your league's waiver wire. If you have room, take a gamble and see if he snaps out of the funk. He's more talented than he has shown this year, at least I hope so since I am a White Sox fan.
--Chone Figgins: He can't be this bad, can he? He has a history of going on tears for a month at a time, so it's worth a flyer if you can pay fifty cents on the dollar.
--Edison Volquez: He should have been occupying your DL slot for the past six weeks, but in case he's out there in shallower leagues he is definitely worth the flier. I mean, his healing time has been somewhat accelerated. So what's the harm?
--Nick Markakis: Another first half from hell but he turned things up a bit over the last couple weeks. Maybe fifty cents on the dollar buys you a decent half from him. I'm not sure what I'm basing this on. Perhaps I love the punishment. But he really is more talented than this, isn't he?
And finally, five guys you should sell high on. Don't give them away for nothing because your team is probably doing pretty well if you have one or more of these guys. But if the opportunity presents itself, think about it:
--Paul Konerko:- Yes, he's an All Star. Yes, you had a nice first half at a nice price. Do you really think this will continue?
--Corey Hart: He's a Home Run Derby particpant. Do you need anything more than this?
--Buster Posey: 1. He's a rookie. 2. He'll be catching more with Molina gone. 3. Adjustments will be made by opposing teams. 4. His value may never be higher.
--Mat Latos: His innings will be limited in the second half, even more if the Padres continue to surprise and there is a chance of them playing in October. You had a nice half. Capitalize on the guy in your league who doesn't realize this.
--Chris B. Young- Right now he is batting .266. The past three years, his average was .212, .248, and .237. Do you really want to find out if the .266 sustainable?
So, good luck to you all in the second half. Feel free to leave comments on your second half picks.
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