BABIP Gone Wild

BABIP, or Batting Average of Balls In Play, is one of the more popular sabremetric statistics you’ll find referenced these days. Simply put, BABIP is the percentage of batted balls put into play that fall for a Base Hit (AB-K-HR)/AB. It’s often used to describe players who have been “lucky” or “unlucky”. It also happens to be one of the three core statistics I use to project Batting Average for positional players. There is a group of players who can be especially difficult to project, we’re going to take a look at this group and the wide range of Batting Averages we should expect from them.

Many factors come into play when projecting BABIP; Line Drive, Ground Ball and Fly Ball Percentages are the main culprits. How hard a player swings the bat also comes into play. Often times you’ll find players who strike out more often are posting higher BABIP numbers. Speed is another factor. Obviously a player who can beat out ground balls is going to have a better Batting Average. Ballpark changes can alter an expected BABIP too. There are many variables involved, but LD% generally has the most influence.

BABIP is not a consistent stat for some players. These deviations are what lead to players being labeled and shoved into groups that include; “players who should experience regression” (Carlos Gonzalez, Austin Jackson, Adrian Beltre, etc.) and “players who should bounce back” (Matt Kemp, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, etc.). The BABIP numbers that are either too low or too high to maintain are often our Sleeper and Bust candidates. That’s all good stuff, but here and now, we’re concerning ourselves with the players who are giving us trouble with our projections. Players who have a short or non-existent track record (rookies) can be difficult to forecast. There is even a small group of older players who leave us wondering if they can bounce back (Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones, Todd Helton, etc.). The players we’re going to look at? Well, let me say this: if we threw a BABIP party, this group of players would take off their tops for a free t-shirt. We’re talking about "BABIP Gone Wild" and lucky for you, we’re combining our greatest BABIP Gone Wild features (which include, Wildest Playas in America, BABIP Gone Wild: 1B Uncovered, BABIP Gone Wild Invades 2B and more) into one engrossing program.


Stephen Drew Arizona Shortstop

2007 BABIP .267 (543 AB)
2008 BABIP .322 (611 AB)
2009 BABIP .288 (533 AB)
2010 BABIP .321 (565 AB)

Like most people who take off their top for cheap prizes, Stephen Drew appears to be a confused individual. Is he going to post a .320 BABIP or something below .290? His .322 BABIP from 2008 was propped up by a 22.6% LD% (career 19.7%) and his .267 BABIP from 2008 was knocked down by a 16.5% LD%. Digging through his month-to-month stats from 2009, it looks like he experienced some bad luck (.225 BABIP in August despite a 19.4% LD%). In 2010, he benefited from good luck when his BABIP numbers didn’t suffer despite posting poor Line Drive Percentages in June and August. Drew’s combined BABIP from 2009 and 2010 is .307. I added on a few points, as his LD% from these years was about 0.7% below his career average, and settled with a .311 BABIP.

2011 Projection: .311 BABIP (565 AB, 108 K, 16 HR) .271 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .286 to .320
Likely Batting Average Range: .251 to .278


Adam Dunn Chicago First Baseman/DH

2003 BABIP .237 (381 AB)
2006 BABIP .276 (561 AB)
2007 BABIP .305 (522 AB)
2008 BABIP .258 (517 AB)
2009 BABIP .324 (546 AB)
2010 BABIP .329 (558 AB)

Since 2001, Adam Dunn’s BABIP has fluctuated from .237 to .329. He made stops anywhere and everywhere in between. His Line Drive Percentages have ranged from 17.5% to 23.5%. This is what we, in the business, would call a diverse portfolio. Dunn’s numbers are so sporadic because his sample size for Batted Balls is smaller than most. The Strikeouts, Home Runs and Walks limit the number of balls put into play so the erratic Line Drive Percentages make it very difficult for us to make a projection. Using his average BABIP from the past three or four years (like some projection systems do) may not be a large enough sample size for Dunn. I used his career .296 BABIP and credited him with a few extra points because he’s been posting better numbers in recent years.

2011 Projection: .300 BABIP (575 AB, 198 K, 40 HR) .245 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .273 to .326
Likely Batting Average Range: .230 to .261


Justin Morneau Minnesota First Baseman

2005 BABIP .251 (490 AB)
2006 BABIP .328 (592 AB)
2007 BABIP .270 (590 AB)
2008 BABIP .312 (623 AB)
2009 BABIP .273 (508 AB)
2010 BABIP .385 (296 AB)

Morneau’s varying BABIP numbers are a direct result of his erratic LD%. We’ve seen it as low as 15.6% and as high as 23.5%. It has reached these extremes multiple times so there is no sort of consistency that we would look for when making a reliable projection. In 2005, when Morneau posted a ghastly .251 BABIP, he was dealing with elbow problems so that may been part of the problem. It certainly didn’t help when he was hitting plenty of Line Drives in August and September and was punished with awful results. We know Morneau is not going to maintain the .385 BABIP from last season, so the question is how much regression will he experience? If we ignore the extreme BABIP numbers from 2005 and 2010, his average BABIP from 2006-2009 was .303, which is good enough for me.

2011 Projection: .302 BABIP (590 AB, 104 K, 33 HR) .288 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .269 to .320
Likely Batting Average Range: .263 to .302


Rickie Weeks Milwaukee Second Baseman

2005 BABIP .290 (360 AB)
2006 BABIP .351 (359 AB)
2007 BABIP .287 (409 AB)
2008 BABIP .277 (475 AB)
2010 BABIP .332 (651 AB)

Roving BABIP numbers, unpredictable Line Drive Percentages and three wrist injuries make Rickie Weeks a true wild card. There’s a thin line between a 25/25 season and logging less than 400 AB. Rickie is not the type of player you want to settle down with if you’re looking for a trusting relationship. His LD% has peaked at 20% two times, bottomed out at 15% two times and twice fell between the two extremes. If you want to play it safe with a Rickie Weeks projection, we could simply use his career average for BABIP (.309). After sifting through his splits, my instincts told me to use a .311 BABIP.

2011 Projection: .311 BABIP (560 AB, 154 K, 23 HR) .254 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .279 to .334
Likely Batting Average Range: .232 to .270


Kurt Suzuki Oakland Catcher

2008 BABIP .310 (530 AB)
2009 BABIP .280 (570 AB)
2010 BABIP .245 (495 AB)

As you can see, in Kurt’s three full seasons his numbers have been at least 30 points apart from each other. At least he’s been consistently inconsistent. His .245 BABIP from last season was plagued by a slow start in which he was posting Line Drive Percentages normally reserved for Gerald Laird (6.3% in April, 11.5% in May, 15.7% in June). He came around during the second half of the season, but his BABIP did not follow suit. He was partly to blame for the .245 BABIP, but he did experience some bad luck. His month-to-month numbers from 2008 smell a little fishy to me (.394 BABIP in June, .375 in July). What I did, was take his career .278 BABIP and added on a few points to make up for the damage done by the .245 BABIP in 2010.

2011 Projection: .281 BABIP (510 AB, 51 K, 14 HR) .273 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .261 to .290
Likely Batting Average Range: .255 to .280


Ian Stewart Colorado Third Baseman

2008 BABIP .362 (266 AB)
2009 BABIP .270 (425 AB)
2010 BABIP .308 (386 AB)

Ian Stewart’s BABIP escapades are fueled by a varying Line Drive Percentage and a number of injuries. If you’ve ever watched an actual Girls Gone Wild video, you shouldn’t be surprised to hear that some of our playas have spent time at the clinic. Last season, Stewart sat out on the sidelines for 29 days because of an oblique injury. He also had smaller injuries to his hand, elbow and leg. Sounds like a mechanical bull-related mishap to me, but I cannot confirm that. When digging through these small samples sizes, we find absolutely zero consistency, besides him posting a .306 BABIP against LHP and RHP. His 2008 LD% was 25%, his 2009 LD% was 14%. In any given month, he could have a .260 BABIP or a .360 BABIP. Surfing through his splits from last year, I felt he is better than his .306 career average and went with a .313 BABIP.

2011 Projection: .313 BABIP (450 AB, 120 K, 23 HR) .265 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .270 to .329
Likely Batting Average Range: .236 to .276


Jay Bruce Cincinnati Reds Outfielder

2008 BABIP .296 (413 AB)
2009 BABIP .221 (345 AB)
2010 BABIP .334 (509 AB)

These days you have to sign a consent form if you want to draft Jay Bruce. Usually this waives your right to sue your league or commissioner if you get burnt by the Reds well hyped Outfielder. One look at his 2009 BABIP and you’ll see why some people despise him. His 13% LD% didn’t help anything before he fractured his wrist and prematurely ended his season. In 2010, the real Jay Bruce started to show up. Four out of six months, he posted BABIP numbers of .348 or better. He was a Line Drive and BABIP machine in the minor leagues (.333 to .429). Now that he is fully recovered from the wrist injury, we should expect big things from the 2005 No.12 overall draft pick. I ignored his rookie season numbers, the absurd 2009 season and went with something that resembled his minor league track record and what we witnessed last season.

2011 Projection: .331 BABIP (570 AB, 129 K, 33 HR) .295 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .292 to .350
Likely Batting Average range: .267 to .309


Colby Rasmus St. Louis Cardinals Outfielder

2009 BABIP .282 (474 AB)
2010 BABIP .354 (464 AB)

Oh boy. While I fear the wrath of Colby’s father for featuring Colby in the BABIP Gone Wild exposé, the 72 point difference in BABIP from 2009 to 2010 makes Rasmus a real head-turner. We must include him no matter what daddy says. I think it’s fair to say Colby experienced some bad luck in 2009 (.210 in May, .224 in July) and some good luck in 2010 (.405 in April, .411 in September). His minor league BABIP numbers (from A+ to AAA) sat between .275 and .300 so when I split the difference between the two extremes, I’m going to lean slightly towards the 2009 BABIP. His career average for BABIP is .314, but I’m rolling with .309.

2011 Projection: .309 BABIP (475 AB, 129 K, 22 HR) .257 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .275 to .340
Likely Batting Average Range: .234 to .278


Nick Swisher New York Yankees Outfielder

2005 BABIP .265 (462 AB)
2006 BABIP .283 (556 AB)
2007 BABIP .301 (539 AB)
2008 BABIP .249 (497 AB)
2009 BABIP .272 (498 AB)
2010 BABIP .335 (566 AB)

Last season Swisher was sweet. That .335 BABIP was 86 points higher than his mark from two seasons ago in Chicago. Swisher was supposed to break out from the evils of Oakland Coliseum that year, but things didn’t work out like they should have. The 2008 season was actually a good year for Swisher in terms of his LD% (20.9% was two percent better than his career average), it’s just that his BABIP didn’t follow suit (.227 May, .245 July, .196 August, .211 September). That’s brutal. In 2010 Swisher had his revenge on the BABIP gods (.443 May, .361 July, .370 August). If we ignore the highs and lows, Swisher should be settling somewhere between .270 and .300. His .286 career BABIP reflects this well.

2011 Projection: .286 BABIP (550 AB, 139 K, 29 HR) .251 AVG
Likely BABIP Range: .259 to .300
Likely Batting Average Range: .233 to .262


The purpose of this exercise is not to scare you away from these players, but to warn you of the dangers of expecting specific numbers from the players you draft. If you draft Adam Dunn, don’t expect his career Batting Average, expect to see anything inside a wide range of numbers. Obviously a low Batting Average would result in depreciated counting stats. Don’t blame him if this happens, blame yourself for gambling on a wild card. OK, maybe I am warning you about drafting Rickie Weeks, but we’ll save that conversation for another time.