Fantasy Impact: Coming Back From Injury

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

As Brian Roberts put it earlier this offseason, “My back is fine. I basically played the last two months of the season, and I played like I normally would. I haven’t had any issues with it. If I can go out and play 60 games with it, I’m over it, as far as I know.” Agreed, but he ended the season with concussion issues. What do we do about that?

Here’s a list of all the injuries and the players that had those injuries at the end of 2010:

Concussions

• Justin Morneau

Morneau has had head issues before. Back in 2005 he did not miss as much action as he did last season, but he hit just .239. He bounced back the next season and won the MVP. Concussions in sports are a hot button issue, but many doctors believe that each concussion is an isolated incident. Aaron Hill bounced back from a concussion in 2009 and Rafael Soriano did the same in 2007. Morneau should be a safe pick.

• Jason Bay

Like Morneau, Bay hit in a pitcher’s park while he was healthy last season, and it showed in his numbers. While Bay can expect to bounce back from the concussion for the same reasons as Morneau, there are bigger questions about whether he can hit in Citi Field.

• Brian Roberts

Officially Roberts was said to have concussion-like symptoms. In any event, he claims that he’s ok, and there’s no better source than that. Roberts is undervalued if he plays 145 games, and there does not appear to be a reason why he won’t.

Major Knee Injuries

• Chipper Jones (torn ACL)

There was a point last year where Chipper was talking about following Bobby Cox out the door to retirement. As it stands, Chipper is coming back, but has not played in more than 143 games since 2003. Like the concussion injury, torn ACLs are much more common in football, and like concussion injuries there is reason to believe a player can comeback. Given all that Chipper has had to endure for years though, he is not a shallow league option.

• Grady Sizemore (microfracture surgery)

The key part to making a microfracture surgery successful is the rehabilitation process. Sizemore has been rehabbing for months now doing mostly water therapy. While his next contract looms, Sizemore is probably more motivated right now to be an every day player. After elbow problems the season before, it is really hard to trust this guy. With where he is going, you don’t have to trust him, you just need to be willing to take a risk.

• Carlos Guillen (microfracture surgery)

Guillen has not had much good fortune staying on the field lately either. Given his age (35) and performance, he shouldn’t register outside of really deep leagues.

• Ricky Nolasco (medium meniscus tear)

When Nolasco’s injury took place last season, the Marlins did not immediately shut him down. That is an indication that his injury was not as serious as some of the others listed here. Nonetheless, he went under a knife, and missed more than a month of action. With five more starts under his belt, his overall line would have jumped a little as well. Nolasco is a safe bet to bounce back in terms of health.

• Chris Coghlan (torn meniscus)

It’s hard to say that Kendry Morales’ injury was not the most painful to fantasy owners and fans of his team, but if there’s an injury that can make us say that it was not it was the one to Coghlan. After all, Coghlan got hurt in a celebration after Morales got hurt in a celebration.

• Milton Bradley (knee surgery)

If there was someone who could beat Morales and Coghlan it would be this guy in 2007. Obviously Bradley is a serious injury risk and should not be taken in a mixed league.

• Carlos Santana (knee surgery)

Before being injured, Santana and Buster Posey were not that far apart from each other. Posey got some separation by continuing his terrific rookie season all the way through the World Series. He should be ready for spring training, but it will be interesting to see how he handles the next close play at the plate.

• Josh Willingham (left knee surgery)

He is going to be hitting in the middle of the lineup. He is excited about playing for what should be a contender. The only problem is, he’s playing in Oakland. Willingham will stay healthy and be effective enough to keep Chris Carter away from being a factor.

• Carlos Beltran (knee)

Beltran came back, but unlike Roberts he was not able to stay on the field at the end of the year as a result of his original injury. The Mets tried to trade him this offseason for a reason. In terms of fantasy options, it’s hard to make this guy a top fifty outfielder.

Minor Knee Injuries

• Yadier Molina (sore knee)

Just something worth watching. Molina missed the last couple games of 2010.

• Jair Jurrjens (slight meniscus tear)

Jurrjens went from having the third best ERA in the NL in 2009 to being below the league average when he did pitch last year. He can certainly bounce back from that if healthy.

• Alex Rios (bone bruise from a foul ball)

This is not nearly as troublesome as his whole second half.

Tommy John Surgery

• Stephen Strasburg

Teammate Jordan Zimmermann took thirteen months to get back to Washington from his surgery, and Strasburg had his surgery in September of last year. The 2010 outlook isn’t strong, but it’s not impossible to think that he could make an impact in September.

• Joe Nathan

Name a pitcher that has undergone TJS that has not had positive results in the last three years. Zimmermann Billy Wagner, Shaun Marcum, Edinson Volquez, and Tim Hudson have all at least shown that they can be the guy that they once were. The best comparison for Nathan is Wagner given their roles and the fact that both guys were older when they went under the knife. Nathan will be back and is going to be a top one hundred player.

• Kris Medlin

Medlin underwent surgery on August 18^th, going off of Hudson’s recovery schedule for a few years ago, that would put him in line for a September return.

• Kyle Blanks

Blanks is unlikely to be ready by Opening Day, but certainly has some sleeper value once he comes back. Playing time should not be too much of an issue if he is close to the player he was in his cup of coffee in 2009.

• Dustin Pedroia (foot surgery)

When asked by WEEI how limited he was by his foot, Pedroia responded “Not at all.” He will be a candidate to lead baseball in runs scored and could end up with better numbers than his MVP season in 2008.

• Jacoby Ellsbury (broken ribs)

Ellsbury took his fair share of abuse for playing in just 18 games last year, but seemingly everyone who gave him that abuse was not a doctor. In any event, the talk at spring is not whether Ellsbury is healthy, but who will steal more – him or Carl Crawford. Terry Francona has committed to trying Ellsbury in the leadoff spot first. Perhaps Ellsbury, and not Pedroia could end up leading the league in runs if he is healthy.

• Ryan Zimmerman (right rib strain)

He only missed the last two weeks of the season, but it is always something to watch with a player that most would consider a second round pick. The first questions he got when he arrived at camp dealt not with health, but his comments after Adam Dunn went to the White Sox.

Legs

• Magglio Ordonez (fractured ankle)

The time has allowed him to heal, but at 37 don’t pencil him in for 150 games either. What you will get from Magglio is a solid line when he plays. He will hit third in front of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, so he could be a great source of runs in the ladder part of the draft.

• Kendry Morales (broken leg)

Gus Frerotte got company in 2010. Morales’ injury came before Coghlan’s, and had a much greater impact than Coghlan’s. After initial doubts about whether Morales would be ready for Opening Day, Mike Scioscia has said very recently that Kendry will, “No doubt” be ready.

• Miguel Cabrera (ankle sprain)

If only Cabrera and the Tigers could field a question on his ankle right now.

Elbow

• Joel Zumaya (broken elbow)

Zumaya will be a free agent after this season, but one injury after another has really hurt his value regardless of how this season turns out. For now, Zumaya is optimistic and somehow still throwing in triple digits. If he stays healthy, hold leagues take notice.

• Hanley Ramirez  (elbow)

The injuries that took Hanley out of the lineup at the end of last year probably wouldn’t have taken him out had the Marlins been playing for something. And reading what Hanley is saying going into this season has fantasy owners very excited. Ramirez has said publicly that he wants to steal bases from the very beginning of this season.

• Andrew Bailey (elbow surgery, but no ligament damage. Dr. Andrews performed)

The A’s are going to bring him along slowly this spring, but Bailey should benefit from the 15 pounds he lost during the offseason and should be ready on Opening Day.

• Conor Jackson (sports hernia)

He spent the offseason working out with Coco Crisp at Athletes’ Performance in Southern California, so he is healthy for now. If both Crisp and Jackson play in more than 140 games this season, Athletes’ Performance should be welcoming Justin Duchscherer next year.

• Justin Duchscherer (hip)

Segway. It sounds as if Duchscherer would be ready to go if there are no set-backs with the hip in the next month. That is a big if.

• David Aardsma (torn labrum in hip)

Initially the M’s and Aardsma didn’t think it was that bad, but now Aardsma will not be pitching on Opening Day.

• Russell Martin (torn labrum in hip)

Martin underwent minor knee surgery this offseason too, but has reported to camp in incredible shape. His body fat is down 7%. The last few seasons have been a radical dip from where Martin’s career was initially heading, so he took the drastic step of training six days a week in mixed martial arts.

Shoulders

• Erik Bedard (torn labrum)

He threw live batting practice already this spring and felt good. Batting practice is much different from actual competition, but given that it is February, it’s a positive sign.

• Brandon Webb (right shoulder)

Similar to Bedard, you have to really reach for positive reports given how  much he’s done in the last two seasons. Webb’s goal is to be ready for Opening Day.

• Johan Santana (shoulder surgery)

Santana won’t be ready until about the All-Star break. Obviously based on the length of time between now and then, that date can change. If I’m in a mixed league I wouldn’t take him until the last pick. He is going to clog up a DL spot that could become necessary to hold for someone else two or three weeks into the season.

• Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder surgery)

NL Only leagues can bid a dollar. If you want.

• Geovony Soto (shoulder surgery)

Soto put up a really good season last year despite the apparent pain the shoulder was causing him. He said that if the season were to start right now, he would be ready to play.

Fingers

• Francisco Rodriguez (right thumb surgery)

More than the thumb injury, people want to know what K-Rod’s state of mind is these days. K-Rod is in a contract year and actually coming off his best season in terms of FIP since 2004. The way he ended his season last year is actually creating an opportunity for him to be a very good value this year.

• Kevin Youkilis (torn muscle in thumb)

Youk has said that he is healthy. Before getting hurt last season, he had the highest OPS of his career.

• Coco Crisp (pinkie)

After spending the offseason at Athletes’ Performance, it may be time to get coo coo for Coco again. If his 2010 numbers were projected over a 162 game season, Coco would have had 17 homers and 69 steals.

Neck/Back

• Vicente Padilla (bulging disk in neck)

If only the neck were his problem still. Padilla has experienced pain in his elbow in the early parts of spring training. His role was expected to be long reliever out of the bullpen, so even NL Only leagues didn’t really have much of a need for him.

• Josh Johnson (back)

Johnson’s injury was present all season long, but the Marlins and Johnson never did much about it because it was more of a problem at the dish than on the mound. At the outset of spring training he  said he felt great.

• Brad Penny (back)

There have been positive reports about Penny’s work ethic in Tigers Camp. He lost 15 pounds in the offseason, but 2008 his last stop in the American League was a complete failure.

• Gavin Floyd (tightness in back and shoulder)

Doctor Lewis Yocum said he was fine.

• Jake Peavy (torn right lat)

As painful as it looked when Peavy left the field last July, he is apparently on schedule to come back in late April. While that date may get people excited about the sleeper value that Peavy possesses, keep in mind he was pretty ordinary in his first season away from Petco and the National League.

• Martin Prado (torn oblique and hip pointer)

Prado has resumed hitting and fielding, and feels good. Prado’s challenge now is to learn how to play the outfield.

Arm

• Mark DeRosa (a second wrist surgery)

DeRosa came back too soon last year, but says he doesn’t even think about the wrist anymore when he plays.

• Gordon Beckham (hand – got hit by pitch on Aug 30^th)

Beckham started just 9 of 31 games down the stretch. By now he’s had plenty of time to heal, and fantasy folks can use those games he didn’t start as more reason for optimism in Beckham’s third season.