Looking at Expected Wins

Last season, Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young award despite a 13-12 record. Luckily for fantasy owners, his other numbers were so good that the low win total didn't hinder his value too much. Using Support-Neutral Wins (SNW) from Baseball Prospectus, which calculates a pitchers expected win total assuming he had league average support (both offense and bullpen), let's take a look a a few pitchers who could take huge fantasy leaps forward in 2011 just by getting better support.

The M's added Jack Cust and Miguel Olivo the the offensive mix, which is a marginal upgrade. A breakout season from Justin Smoak along with a bounce-back from Chone Figgins would go a long way to helping with run support, though this team may still struggle to score enough runs. The bullpen remains mostly the same, but troubled prospect Dan Cortez has a chance to clean up his act and make a real impact in 2011. This team has improved a bit offensively and adding Brendan Ryan to the mix (shifting Figgins back to third) should help the defense, but all-in-all the M's will probably fall a bit short in terms of putting King Felix among the league leaders in wins.

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Hanson had is ups-and-downs in 2010, but ultimately put together a stellar season in his first full-time big league duty. However, Hanson was also extremely unlucky in terms his run support, which led to a losing record (10-11). Hopefully for savvy fantasy GM's, that W-L record will hold back his perceived value on draft day.

Jason Heyward could have his first huge season at any time and even if he doesn't, his support will be well above average (both on offense and defense). The Addition of Dan Uggla gives the Braves a legit power bat smack in the middle of their order. Freddie Freeman, at the very young age of 21, may be several years away from his best numbers, but he has the skills to be an improvement at first base over what the Braves got in 2010. Alex Gonzalez at shortstop will play good defense and pop out a few homers in his first full year with the Braves.

All-in-all, the Braves offense if good enough to provide at least league average support or something very close to it. However, the bullpen isn't exactly deep and there is some relative lack of experience at the back end.

Hanson is good enough on his own to win 15 games or so. If Venters and Kimbrel turn into the shutdown 8th/9th inning duo that most think they will, Hanson could contend for the league lead in wins.

The thought that the Phillies have one of the game's best offensive teams is fading. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are surely still offensive powerhouses, but Jimmy Rollins hasn't posted an OPS over .720 for two seasons now and missed significant time last season with injury. Placido Polanco is 35 years old and dealt with elbow issues in 2010. Then, mix in a declining Raul Ibanez and an unproven rookie in Domonic Brown. On the Yankees or Red Sox, Hamels would probably win 19-20 games, but the Phillies' offense is getting older and more risky.

Bullpen wise, the Phillies will bring back most of the key pieces from 2010, when they combined for the 10th best FIP in baseball.

After stating to the world that they had money to spend and wouldn't be frugal about spending it, the Angels didn't do much to address their biggest offseason need (No, Vernon Wells is not the answer. If anything, the loss of Napoli is a bigger negative). The Angels ranked 12th of 14 American League teams in runs scored last season. The return of Kendry Morales will help, but everything else remains mostly the same. If there is cause for optimism, it lies in the fact that the Halos did improve their bullpen, a pen that actually hurt Weaver's cause in 2010. According to Baseball Prospectus' Pen Support stat (The number of additional runs charged to the starting pitcher that his bullpen allowed to score after he left the game, compared to an average bullpen.), the Angels Pen had a negative affect on Weaver's numbers, ranking 23 worst (min 100 IP) in terms of allowing runs after he left the game. The new pen should help Weaver more than it hurts him in 2011.

There is no questioning Josh Johnson's top-end stuff. His K/BB ratio was the eighth best in baseball last season and he posted the best HR/9 rate of any starting pitcher (min 100 IP). However, with only 11 wins to his credit, Johnson is not viewed as elite -- he is going off the board in mock drafts around 40 picks after Ubaldo Jimenez. Initialy, it might seem like the Marlins offense took a hit with the Dan Uggla trade, but he essentially can be replaced -- if not surpassed -- by a full year of Mike Stanton. Newcomer Logan Morrison may not hit a ton of home runs, but his track record says that he'll get on base and put the ball in play more often times than not. The biggest problem with the Marlins will be providing enough defensive support to push Johnson over the top. Hanley Ramirez, while one of the games best offensive threats, is not a viable defensive shortstop and the thought of Chris Coghlan, who wasn't good in left field and is coming off of major knee surgery, roaming center is frightful.

At least the Marlins made some moves to strengthen the bullpen.

Josh Johnson is dominant enough on his own to force 15 wins, but I'm afraid his support may once again keep him from being seen as an elite "winner:.

A 2010 preseason fantasy sleeper, Matusz started out hot, but hit too many obstacles in his rookie season, ending with a 4.30 ERA and 10 wins. His peripheral stats, however, were fairly impressive for a 23-year-old. Matusz posted a 7.33 K/9 and a 3.23 BB/9 and has room to improve on both rate stats going forward. According to BP's Pen Support, Matusz received the 12th worst bullpen support in baseball last season. The addition of Kevin Gregg, the re-signing of Koji Uehara and a bounce-back from Mike Gonzalez are all factors that would go a long way to helping sure-up the bullpen woes. Offensively and defensively, the O's are a better team than they were in 2010. The additions of Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy as well as a full year of health from Brian Roberts, should go a long way in helping the pitching staff. Matusz is still young, but at times he looks like a veteran on the mound. It is completely possible that he ends up with a higher win total than what I am projecting.

Greinke's Cy Young award in 2009 signaled the start of a change in the way baseball writers look at the importance of wins. 16 wins, until then, had not been a number worthy of Cy Young consideration.

Even while Greinke's K/9 regressed in 2010, he still managed to limit his free passes, but stranded the second fewest percentage of baserunners since his second big league season back in 2005. Greinke didn't exactly get much help for his bullpen either.

Moving to the National League could increase his strikeout total and even if that doesn't happen, his strand rate should improve. The Brewers should also give Greinke more run support in 2011. They ranked 12th in baseball in runs scored, compared to Kansas City, who ranked 20th. I would be shocked if Greinke doesn't have a significantly better season in 2011, if not a monstrous one. The bullpen has upside to be pretty good, but for now they'll keep his projected wins down a bit.

The Giants had a heck of a year pitching wise in 2010. They led all of baseball with a 3.36 ERA and were third in baseball with a 3.74 FIP. Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez were a big part of that. Still, offensively the Giants were only so-so, ranking 17th in baseball in runs scored and OPS.

The problem in projecting more wins for either Cain or Sanchez is 1) regression and 2) defensive support. Both Cain and Sanchez should regress in 2011. Cain's .252 BABIP against was the lowest of his career, as was his walk rate, and both will have to hold steady to avoid a worse ERA. Of course even a "worse" ERA wouldn't be that bad. For Sanchez, it's his 4.6 career BB/9 that is most worrisome. Sanchez got away with such a high number of free passes in 2010 due in part to a very high 9.5 K/9. However, he'll need to hold his line drive rate to around 15 percent once again if his BABIP against is going to resemble what was a career low .252 in 2010. Both pitchers have the ability to post solid ERA's in 2010, but a full season of Mark DeRosa and Pat Burrell in the outfield along with Miguel Tejada back at shortstop at age 36 certainly won't help.

Both Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley got hurt big-time by the Dodger bullpen in 2010. They ranked 7th and 8th in worst Pen Support for the 2010 season (min 100 IP). Both Kuroda and Billingsley are more ground ball pitchers than fly ball pitchers, so they won't be hurt as bad by the potentially pitiful defensive outfield of Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and whoever the heck they plan on playing in left field. However, the prospect of a particularly poor defense still doesn't bode well for any Dodgers' pitcher. The key is more than likely going to be the bullpen. They've added Matt Guerrier, but he caries plenty of risk with such little strikeout ability. Hong-Chih Kuo is a dominant reliever and could be used in the ninth if need be. However, the key piece to this pen will be the bounce-back or not of Jonathan Broxton. Broxton lost some velocity in 2010 and seemed to lose focus/confidence as well. If he can regain his former stuff and be a shut-down closer once again, the starting staff will benefit greatly. Unfortunately, no matter what the bullpen does, this team is a couple offensive pieces away from taking the next step forward in terms of run support.

Trying to predict wins is a valiant, but somewhat misguided task. The numbers and analysis above represent two things, 1) Most of the pitchers above pitched better than their 2010 W-L record indicates and 2) they could see much better results with a little more help from the team around them in 2011.

In the immortal (not really) words of the musical group TLC, "Don't go chasing wins. Please stick to the strikeouts and the groundouts that you're used to."

OK, so I changed the words...completely...and I just made a reference to a cheesy 90's R&B/pop song. But I think you get the point. Looking at expected wins is more about analyzing the raw numbers of each pitcher rather than trying to accurately project a win total. Fantasy GM's can take advantage of this on draft day 2011.