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Minor League Keepers to Buy Low

Written by Charlie Saponara and Project Prospect on 27 February 2011.

A Night at the Aquasoxphoto © 2008 Chase N. | more info (via: Wylio)
As a baseball fan, er, fanatic, I've always thought that one of the best jobs in the world has to be working in a major league front office. This is why fantasy baseball is such a great game. We get to be general managers, but without the real-life pressures of tying to put together a ball club that will not only win, but put fans in the seats and generate revenue. Some fantasy GM's go year-to-year, starting from scratch each time. Then there are those who participate in the keeper formats. Then there are those who take it to the dynasty level, building a team from the ground up and stashing prospects for multiple years in hopes that someday they will turn into big league all-stars.

While top prospect lists come out every year and through multiple mediums, there is usually quite a bit of disparity in the rankings, especially outside of the top 10. This is where fantasy GM's have to take their own stance. Should I buy low on prospect X? Should I sell high on prospect Y?

Listed below are a few names that keeper league GM's may want to consider as great buy low opportunities.

The information in this article stems from the outstanding content of Project Prospect's Digital Prospect Guide, which features in depth analysis and video of the games top prospects. You can find more information on the Digital Prospect Guide here.

Yonder Alonso 1B/OF - Reds
The knock on Alonso is that he hasn't shown much power as a professional, after hitting 52 homers in 665 college at-bats while at the University of Miami. In his three minor league seasons, Alonso has only hit 24 home runs 821 at-bats.

However, some of the lack of power can be directly linked to a broken hamate bone, an injury that occurred in mid-June of 2009. This injury has a history of sapping a hitter's power for about a full year. According to Project Prospect, during his recovery Alonso changed his swing, using his arms more than his wrists (not a good think for power).

If Alonso can have a healthy season in 2011, we could see a breakout that puts him in the high-AVG, med-power 1B category alongside the likes of Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman.

Jarrod Parker SP - Diamondbacks
Parker was one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball before Tommy John surgery caused him to miss all of  the 2010 season.

Project Prospects reports that Parker was toughing 94-96 MPH in the instructional league upon his return to the mound and that he still features three plus pitches.

While command is the last thing to come around after TJS, it shouldn't be long before Parker is knocking on the door to the big leagues, with no one to block him in the current Diamondbacks rotation. He has the pure stuff to be a major league ace and his floor may be nothing worse than a solid number two starter.

Wilin Rosario C - Rockies
A torn ACL in his right knee ended what was looking like a huge offensive season for Rosario in 2010; he had hit 19 home runs in only 270 at-bats before the injury.

While Project Prospect has some concerns about Rossario's plate discipline, they are excited about his future power projections, especially for a catcher, calling his potential "elite" for a player behind the plate.

In fantasy baseball, power behind the dish is always valuable and, unlike Jesus Montero, Rosario should be able to perform well enough defensively to stay there.

Martin Perez SP - Rangers
2010 was a rough season statistically for Perez, who was largely considered one of the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he was also a 19-year-old performing at the double-A level, something that is rarely seen. As a 19-year-old in double-A, Perez struck out 101 batters in 99.2 innings, which is extremely impressive.

Project Prospect believes that Perez just needs to sharpen his focus and regain confidence because his stuff still grades out as "elite".

Nick Weglarz OF - Indians
Project Prospect writes:

"Overlooked by many after back-to-back injury plagued seasons -- played through a broken leg in 2009 and required surgery after spraining his thumb in 2010 -- Weglarz is a polished, young hitter who could surface as a 900+ OPS bat in the big leagues."

Weglarz slugged .502 with 13 home runs in 313 combined at-bats between double and triple-A in 2010. He also posted a .388 combined OBP, which is a direct result of his outstanding plate discipline.

 

If he can stay healthy in 2011, he could be doing damage in Cleveland at some point during the upcoming season.

 

Get more outstanding prospect analysis at ProjectProspect.com

 

Charlie Saponara's scouting reports at ProjectProspect.com: Mike TroutShelby MillerTyler Skaggs