We knew it was going to be close. But this is like the second race at Colonial Downs when I have a 3-6 box.

It should not come as a great surprise that I marvel in beating Virginia Tech (and UNC....and Maryland...and to a lesser extent Georgia Tech). It is a tough time walking into work the day after one of the 3 “big” contests after a defeat, but having the last word is always great, especially after a win on the road, and even better when it is by 2 points. Textbook in the Hoos big victories on the year have been the ability to hold teams to prolonged droughts in the second half. But holding VT to just 1 field goal in the last 13+ minutes goes to show you the power of being one of the strongest defensive teams in the country. Add to that Scotts big night...again, Sammy finding his shot in the 2nd half, Jontel’s ability to score on a more consistent basis, and this game’s ‘X’ factor, Paul Jesperson, and you now have a team that can find scoring from more than 2 players.

Now the Hoos win over the Hokies is important for my sanity, but it is just as important in the other two horse races: the ACC and the NCAA. Let’s look at the race in the conference first.

It is very, very safe to say that Duke and UNC will both finish in the top 3 and FSU should claim that last spot, barring a massive collapse down the road. Now thanks to UNC and Maryland, Miami and NC State are 1 game behind the Hoos for 4th place, with Virginia holding the tiebreaker against both. That means that, with 3 games to play, Virginia will have to lose all 3 to fall out of 4th place. But how conceivable is that? Let’s look at a few teams.

#1 UNC 11-2 (@UVa, MD, @Duke)

As much as we really want to hope and pray, it will be at best a dogfight against the Tar Heels this Saturday. Maryland gave UNC fits in the first half of their game in College Park, but it was over very quickly in the 2nd. And no one can figure out what happens against Duke, not even Duke. Virginia can finish ahead of UNC with 3 wins and 3 North Carolina losses, but we will never be that lucky, especially with the Terps at home. So you can write UNC ahead of Virginia in pen.

#2 Duke 10-2 (@FSU, VT, @Wake, UNC)

The Tech and Wake games will be walks, and right there, will put the Hoos behind them in the ACC based on W/L alone. The only thing we can hope for in this situation is for Duke to beat FSU to help us with third.

#3 FSU 10-2 (Duke, @Miami, @UVa, Clemson)

This one is intriguing....for about a minute. Virginia can get to 3rd a few ways, but it would be pretty hard to get there without beating FSU next week or UNC and MD and hoping for a complete Nole collapse. It is also possible for UVa to beat FSU and in case of a tie in the ACC standings with a split, they go to overall record, which should favor UVa, barring one other team beats the Noles. With me? Duke will be a challenge no matter where the game is. Miami is a rivalry and has the size down low and the outside shooting to compete if they can put a complete game together. And Clemson is in that 7-6/6-7 glob in the middle and should not fold up in that last game. I will but FSU in pencil for 3rd, but we have gone from ‘never that lucky’ to ‘stranger things have happened’.

#4 UVa (UNC, FSU, @MD)

Couldn’t have asked for a worse last 3 games. UNC and FSU just cause, and MD will remember what happened last Saturday when we come into their house. Best case: Virginia goes 1-1 over the next week and locks up 4th. Realistic: 1-2 and 4th is ours as well. Worst: 0-3 and will need some help from below to stay in 4th, with a slip to 8th if State, Miami, and MD go on unprecedented streaks.

#5 NC State 7-6 (@Clemson, Miami, @VT)

None of those games are gimmies right now, and that middle game with Miami should be the separator for 5th/6th.

#6 Miami 7-6 (FSU, @NCSU, BC)

The loss to Maryland was huge for the Hoos because, as we said above, puts them 1 game back with 3 to go and UVa owning the tiebreaker. A loss to FSU would push the Noles ahead of us, but should definitely put them behind us as well. We will know more after this weekend, but we should be at DEFCON 3 if they pull off the upset against the Noles.

#7 Maryland 6-7 (@GT, @UNC, UVa) and #8 Clemson (NCSU, VT, @FSU) can’t catch us unless they both sweep the table pulling massive upsets, and even if they go 2-1 and UVa goes 0-3, the Hoos own a better record overall

Prediction: Look for the Hoos to finish in that coveted 4th slot and have to face Miami or NC State in the Quarters of the ACC Tourney.

Now on to the NCAA. Depending on what, happens with the RPI (better or worse) after playing VT, we are 37th right now, which is a solid 7/8 seed in the NCAA tourney. Here are the scenarios:

11-5 and I’m packing up the bags and heading to the first round venue, wherever it is. And if you think that’s a bold statement, it simply means that it ain’t going to happen.

10-6 would be a dream and we could even rest in the ACC tourney (i.e. lose first round to a NC State or Miami) and still be a solid 7/8 seed, with any wins just bumping us up the food chain. I have always stated that the #6 seed is a very solid seeding with the #11 seed being either a mid-mid major champion or a team just barely squeaking in. Then you get 3-2-1 in that order, where the chance of other teams pulling upsets increase.

9-7: That would sow up the 4th spot and should be more than enough to get the Hoos in, as it looks like conferences like the CAA will be a 1 bid league and the Big East will not be putting in an obscene amount of teams. Granted their will be some upsets, worst of would be teams like Murray State and Wichita State losing in the conference tourney, but we should be ‘mid major’ proof at 9-7, and at worse we are in the play in game.

8-8: We would need some serious help in the ACC tourney. If that backs us into 4th, then the first game against NC State or Miami would be for a berht. Any lower and we would have to crush the opening round game against GT or BC, then beat Miami or NC State in the second round, which would be like a play in game for the play-in game. Finally we would have either beat UNC or Duke to lock it in OR lose close and get to praying.

That’s the whole ball of wax. Now I don’t believe that it will be settled this weekend against UNC, but if we somehow pull it off, it should be a fun read on Sunday night.

If this wasn’t a 18 Tums weekend, I don’t know what was. With so many sports happening over three days, Hoos fans could have used 1 our 2 laughers to make the time go by a little less stressful. But that’s not what UVa sports is all about, and each and every team had reasons to cause some serious heartburn. Some teams have time to work on some things, some don’t. So what went down?

Men’s Basketball

Saturday: Maryland (W, 71-44)

There are wins and there are needed wins. This falls in the later category. After dropping a bad loss on the road to Clemson, you could have heard most of the fair weather fans jumping off the bandwagon. Whether it was UVa defensive domination in the 2nd half or Maryland not coming out to play is kind of a mute point (I watched it again last night and it was about 50/50), the win actually moved the Hoos into a tie for 4th with NC State and Miami in the ACC, with Virginia holding both tiebreakers. Scott had a personal ACC high 25 points and the stout UVa defense allowed 13 total points on 20.8% shooting in the 2nd half to pull away. Sammy made some key 3s early and Malcolm Brogdon poured in 14 off the bench to help the ailing Joey Hoops (who still had 6). It does not get easier for the Hoos with a Tuesday road game at Virginia Tech and a home match against UNC this weekend. 9-7 is feasible, but that VT game has to be a must win.

Baseball (at Caravelle Resort Tournament)

Friday: Boston College (L, 5-3)
Saturday: Coastal Carolina (W, 9-3)
Saturday: JMU (T, 4-4)

One of the most sobering parts of this weekend was following the Baseball team. When you are used to the Hoos winning, mainly because the pitchers taking care of business on the bump. This weekend, we quickly learned that the bats are going to need to help us out a lot more this year.

Game 1 against Boston College started out smooth, but it was apparent about the middle of the 3rd inning that Kline was still adjusting to the starting role. He worked out of runners in scoring position in the 1st and 3rd, but 2 wild pitches in the 4th allowed 4 unearned runs. And after his first earned run was plated in the 5th, he was pulled for Kyle Crockett, who finished the game. The bats awake early, with Jared King and the 1st years stepping up, but they were quickly silenced after the 3rd, and couldn’t dig out of the hole.

Game 2 saw what Cavalier fans were used to. A strong outing by Whit Mayberry (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 0 BB) leading into the pen shutting down the opposition. The Hoos were still in an offensive funk early, but 3 run homers by the vets Jared King and Chris Taylor in the 7th and 8th gave the good guys more than enough runs to beat Coastal Carolina.

Game 3 sets up one of the most intriguing situations that will play out later this year. JMU was a team that Virginia will see two more times, and for it to end in a tie, especially after the back and forth game that transpired from the 4th inning on until it was called in the top of the 9th due to rain. The Hoos scored first on a Mike Papi double, but then the Dukes scored 2 in the bottom of the inning after the error on Branden Cogswell. Virginia tied it in the 7th and took the lead 4-2 after the 8th, just to see JMU tie it up in the bottom of the 8th.

Virginia gets William & Mary on Tuesday, maybe, depending on the snowfall in C’Ville clearing up, before Monmouth comes to town on Friday before a 3 game set. Virginia will need to use this 9 game home stand to sort our all these new pitchers and players before they get to conference time.

Men’s Tennis (at ITA Indoor Nationals, Charlottesville)

Friday: #16 Auburn (W, 4-0)
Saturday: #9 Stanford (W, 4-1)
Sunday: #3 Ohio State (L, 4-1)

All good things must come to an end. The quest for an unprecedented 5th straight ITA Indoor title was throttled by the Buckeyes Sunday night by a final of 4-1. The Hoos did what they normally do in the early rounds: let their depth at singles take over and wrap up matches quickly. None of the #1 singles went final against Auburn and Stanford. but after OSU squeaked out the doubles point, the singles had an opportunity to shine again. But when OSU went took 2 of 3 singles results, it writing was on the wall. and when Domijan fell 6-3 in the 3rd set, that ended the run. The Hoos will get back into it this Sunday at Virginia Tech before heading to Mississippi to take on MSU and Ole Miss. But don’t let this discourage you, the Hoos will still be ranked #3 when this is all said and done and should still have a great shot at a clean record all the way to the NCAAs in May.

Men’s Lacrosse

Saturday: @ #20 Drexel (W, 9-8)

Like I said, nothing came easy this weekend. We talked about Drexel being a very defensive team, but it was the Drexel offense that out shot Virginia 41-24 on the evening. This game was back and forth all day, and with 7:58 to go, the game was tied at 8. The winning goal came from Rob Emery, assisted by Colin Briggs with just under 5 minutes to go. It was a day where Steele Stanwick did not record a point, showing just how good a job the Dragons did on the All-American. Virginia will get VMI on Tuesday, which should boost them up a little before Stony Brook comes to town on Saturday.

Women’s Lacrosse

Saturday: @ #7 Loyola (W, 14-9)

It was a textbook opening for the Women’s Team as they headed to Maryland and defeated the Greyhounds. They used a great defensive 2nd half to pull away after the break and got a big win over a higher ranked team on the road. Mark this as one of the matches they will point to when the NCAA selection committee is looking around at the end of the year.

Softball (at ECU Pirate Clash)

Friday: Fordham (L,2-1)
Friday: #21 Louisville (L, 2-1)
Saturday: Hofstra (W, 7-2)
Saturday: Fordham (W, 7-4)

A season after the Hoos pulled one of the biggest upsets in ACC Tournament history, the Softball team was preseason ranked #4 in the ACC (out of 8) and a decent chance to make the NCAAs. They have jumped out to a 6-2 start to the season after spending the last two weekends in Greenville, NC for Invitationals, including the 2-2 marking this past weekend at the ECU Pirate Clash. They will host the Cavalier Invitational this coming weekend with teams like Ohio, Colgate, and Saint Joseph’s in the field.

Wrestling

Sunday: #23 ODU (W, 31-3)
Sunday: Geroge Mason (W, 29-7)

We don’t try to know every sport well enough to break down wins, but we can tell you how important these two wins were to VIrginia. The Hoos wrapped up the ACC season back in January with a 4-1 record in duels, so the past month have been warmups to get ready for the Virginia for the trip to UNC for the ACC Championships. ODU represented only the second ranked win on the season for the Hoos (2-1 overall vs. ranked teams) and they finished the year 11-1 in duels, the highest win percentage in the programs history. The Cavs should be a factor in the 6 team ACC and should put a lot of wrestlers in the NCAAs as well.