22 February 2012
We knew it was going to be close. But this is like the second race at Colonial Downs when I have a 3-6 box.
It should not come as a great surprise that I marvel in beating Virginia Tech (and UNC....and Maryland...and to a lesser extent Georgia Tech). It is a tough time walking into work the day after one of the 3 “big” contests after a defeat, but having the last word is always great, especially after a win on the road, and even better when it is by 2 points. Textbook in the Hoos big victories on the year have been the ability to hold teams to prolonged droughts in the second half. But holding VT to just 1 field goal in the last 13+ minutes goes to show you the power of being one of the strongest defensive teams in the country. Add to that Scotts big night...again, Sammy finding his shot in the 2nd half, Jontel’s ability to score on a more consistent basis, and this game’s ‘X’ factor, Paul Jesperson, and you now have a team that can find scoring from more than 2 players.
Now the Hoos win over the Hokies is important for my sanity, but it is just as important in the other two horse races: the ACC and the NCAA. Let’s look at the race in the conference first.
It is very, very safe to say that Duke and UNC will both finish in the top 3 and FSU should claim that last spot, barring a massive collapse down the road. Now thanks to UNC and Maryland, Miami and NC State are 1 game behind the Hoos for 4th place, with Virginia holding the tiebreaker against both. That means that, with 3 games to play, Virginia will have to lose all 3 to fall out of 4th place. But how conceivable is that? Let’s look at a few teams.
#1 UNC 11-2 (@UVa, MD, @Duke)
As much as we really want to hope and pray, it will be at best a dogfight against the Tar Heels this Saturday. Maryland gave UNC fits in the first half of their game in College Park, but it was over very quickly in the 2nd. And no one can figure out what happens against Duke, not even Duke. Virginia can finish ahead of UNC with 3 wins and 3 North Carolina losses, but we will never be that lucky, especially with the Terps at home. So you can write UNC ahead of Virginia in pen.
#2 Duke 10-2 (@FSU, VT, @Wake, UNC)
The Tech and Wake games will be walks, and right there, will put the Hoos behind them in the ACC based on W/L alone. The only thing we can hope for in this situation is for Duke to beat FSU to help us with third.
#3 FSU 10-2 (Duke, @Miami, @UVa, Clemson)
This one is intriguing....for about a minute. Virginia can get to 3rd a few ways, but it would be pretty hard to get there without beating FSU next week or UNC and MD and hoping for a complete Nole collapse. It is also possible for UVa to beat FSU and in case of a tie in the ACC standings with a split, they go to overall record, which should favor UVa, barring one other team beats the Noles. With me? Duke will be a challenge no matter where the game is. Miami is a rivalry and has the size down low and the outside shooting to compete if they can put a complete game together. And Clemson is in that 7-6/6-7 glob in the middle and should not fold up in that last game. I will but FSU in pencil for 3rd, but we have gone from ‘never that lucky’ to ‘stranger things have happened’.
#4 UVa (UNC, FSU, @MD)
Couldn’t have asked for a worse last 3 games. UNC and FSU just cause, and MD will remember what happened last Saturday when we come into their house. Best case: Virginia goes 1-1 over the next week and locks up 4th. Realistic: 1-2 and 4th is ours as well. Worst: 0-3 and will need some help from below to stay in 4th, with a slip to 8th if State, Miami, and MD go on unprecedented streaks.
#5 NC State 7-6 (@Clemson, Miami, @VT)
None of those games are gimmies right now, and that middle game with Miami should be the separator for 5th/6th.
#6 Miami 7-6 (FSU, @NCSU, BC)
The loss to Maryland was huge for the Hoos because, as we said above, puts them 1 game back with 3 to go and UVa owning the tiebreaker. A loss to FSU would push the Noles ahead of us, but should definitely put them behind us as well. We will know more after this weekend, but we should be at DEFCON 3 if they pull off the upset against the Noles.
#7 Maryland 6-7 (@GT, @UNC, UVa) and #8 Clemson (NCSU, VT, @FSU) can’t catch us unless they both sweep the table pulling massive upsets, and even if they go 2-1 and UVa goes 0-3, the Hoos own a better record overall
Prediction: Look for the Hoos to finish in that coveted 4th slot and have to face Miami or NC State in the Quarters of the ACC Tourney.
Now on to the NCAA. Depending on what, happens with the RPI (better or worse) after playing VT, we are 37th right now, which is a solid 7/8 seed in the NCAA tourney. Here are the scenarios:
11-5 and I’m packing up the bags and heading to the first round venue, wherever it is. And if you think that’s a bold statement, it simply means that it ain’t going to happen.
10-6 would be a dream and we could even rest in the ACC tourney (i.e. lose first round to a NC State or Miami) and still be a solid 7/8 seed, with any wins just bumping us up the food chain. I have always stated that the #6 seed is a very solid seeding with the #11 seed being either a mid-mid major champion or a team just barely squeaking in. Then you get 3-2-1 in that order, where the chance of other teams pulling upsets increase.
9-7: That would sow up the 4th spot and should be more than enough to get the Hoos in, as it looks like conferences like the CAA will be a 1 bid league and the Big East will not be putting in an obscene amount of teams. Granted their will be some upsets, worst of would be teams like Murray State and Wichita State losing in the conference tourney, but we should be ‘mid major’ proof at 9-7, and at worse we are in the play in game.
8-8: We would need some serious help in the ACC tourney. If that backs us into 4th, then the first game against NC State or Miami would be for a berht. Any lower and we would have to crush the opening round game against GT or BC, then beat Miami or NC State in the second round, which would be like a play in game for the play-in game. Finally we would have either beat UNC or Duke to lock it in OR lose close and get to praying.
That’s the whole ball of wax. Now I don’t believe that it will be settled this weekend against UNC, but if we somehow pull it off, it should be a fun read on Sunday night.
