The coaches’ attire will be silly, but the games won’t be.
I’m going to run through some numbers to know and watch as way of previewing the Maui Invitational which tips off today. Of the eight teams in paradise, only Duke has played as many 4 games, and Kansas owns the rare previous matchup with another top team (their loss to Kentucky at MSG). In short, sample sizes are still very small and opposition is still largely disproportionate.
These next few days, however, will pit 7 power conference teams, including 4 in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll, together in one bracket. We’ll start to see some better answers, or at least answers arguably as good as we’re going to see before conference season begins in January. The field:
Michigan (3-0): The Wolverines are the outlier of the tournament field, at least on the stat sheet. They’ve been taking the air out of the ball so far this season, averaging a lethargic 60 possessions per game. Despite only three games, that figure isn’t a stretch: UM averaged only 62.6 possessions last season, good for 330th in the nation. Can the Wolverines impose their pace on the rest of the field? If so, and if they can keep opponents under 0.8 points per possession, they’ll be very dangerous.
Memphis (1-0): On the other end of the pace spectrum is the Tigers, who raced past a tough Belmont squad (just ask Duke) in a 79 possession track meet. Despite the frenzy though, Memphis only turned the ball over 11% of the time and shot a ridiculous 64.7 eFG%. For a team that doesn’t rebound much, Memphis will need to keep the pace high and match their first shooting performance against equally athletic opponents.
Duke (4-0): Duke has stood tall against relatively tough early season opponents and arrive in Maui seasoned and ready to lay claim to the island title for the third time since 2001. Seth Curry and Austin Rivers have paced the Blue Devils through the early going, but perhaps their secret to success is in doubling up their opponents’ free throw rate, 62.1 to 30.7, and then knocking them down as a team at a reasonable if not spectacular 68%. Yes, Duke’s FTR is still inflated by the Michigan State affair, but they’ve still been over 45 in their other three contests.
Tennessee (2-0): It’s been all about efficiency in Knoxville under new coach Cuonzo Martin. The Vols, who are clear underdogs in the field, have an offensive rating of 134. Opponents will no doubt try to force Tennessee into playing faster than their 66 possessions/game in hopes of disrupting their offensive flow. Will it work? If they can get by Duke, a potential second round date with Michigan will fit the Vols’ style much more comfortably.
UCLA (0-2): The first ten days of the season have been an unmitigated disaster for Ben Howland’s club. Between two ugly losses and the suspension of Reeves Nelson, nothing’s pretty about the Bruins at the moment, including the stat lines. The lastest report form the LA Times, that Nelson missed the team bus to the airport and had to catch a later flight to Hawaii, after being suspended initially for being late to a team meeting, doesn’t improve the picture. The one bright spot for the Bruins? They drew host Chaminade in the first round. Figure most numbers will improve for the athletic Bruins for at least one day.
Chaminade: Thanks for playing (and hosting) Silverswords. Could this UCLA team be enough of a mess to offer CU’s seventh win in the tournament? Still doubtful.
Kansas (1-1): The reshaped and Morris-less Jayhawks are coming off a respectable loss to Kentucky. Kentucky stifled KU offensively, forcing them into a terrible shooting performance from every spot on the floor. Perhaps the most shocking number from that 10-point loss? Junior forward Justin Wesley’s -21 plus/minus rating in 21 minutes. Factor in that Kansas was +11 plus/minus as a team with Wesley off the floor, and what you haven’t isn’t very good: a -32 Roland Rating, +/- on-court minus +/- off-court. Can Bill Self refine his rotation? Can Kansas pick up their offensive efficiency against power conference defenses? Both need to happen fast.
Georgetown (2-0): The Hoyas have started strong thanks in large part to the calling cards of traditional Big East basketball: rebounding and defense. Georgetown has grabbed 44% of offensive rebounds and allowed an offensive efficiency rating under 74. Can they sustain those paces against Kansas? They’ll need to in order to win. Maintaining an assist percentage of nearly 61% will go a long way towards breaking down and getting through more athletic defenses.
For predictions on the Maui Invitational, I recommend Ken Pomeroy’s Log5 odds. (Preview: the Kansas/Georgetown winner is in a good spot.)
