Eight free agents likely to get overpaid
5. Adam LaRoche
There are plenty of indications that LaRoche will be returning to Washington. That's fine on a short-term deal. But this is a guy who had a career year at age 32, and will be 33 in a couple of days. He's the class of the first base market this offseason, and he's just not that good. Before 2012, his best season in terms of fWAR was 2006, when LaRoche hit 32 homers, had a .915 OPS, and contributed 2.5 fWAR to the Braves. After he declined his end of a $10 million option for 2013, it's clear to me that he's thinking of at least a $12 million salary, perhaps more if the Nationals are willing to throw a $13.3 million qualifying offer at him. That's just way too much for a player of his caliber, and if he gets more than a three year contract, it'll look pretty ugly if he falls back to his previous level of play, which I think is likely.
6. Delmon Young
Anything more than one year and $3 million (at the absolute max) is too much for Young, playof heroics not withstanding. The former number one overall pick has turned into a brutal player, one that doesn't walk at all and is an absolutely brutal fielder. Young also possesses some hefty platoon splits against righties, and just isn't an every day player. If anyone pays him like a former top overall pick instead of a bench player, they're absolutely crazy. This guy shouldn't be playing every day unless the player from 2010 miraculously rises like a phoenix from the ashes of the huge disappointment that Young has become.
7. Kyle Lohse
Lohse is good for what he is: a middle of the rotation starter. However, he's not worth a double digit salary per year at more than three years, which is what the sugar plum fairy in me thinks he's going to get after getting paid a hair shy of $12 million in 2012 for a 16-3 career year at age 33. Lohse turned 34 after the season ended, and he's been so spotty over his career that I wouldn't trust him to repeat his 2011-2012 hot streak. Of course, with how middle-heavy the free agency market for starting pitchers is this offseason, some team will likely value Lohse as an ace, and pay him as such.
8. Rafael Soriano
The Yankees overpaid Soriano two years ago, and he bailed them out by opting out on the final year of his contract. He'll likely decline the qualifying offer, and he's apparently looking for something in the general vicinity of four years and $60 million a season. Good luck with that. Spending a ton of money on relievers is stupid to begin with (unless your name is Ned Colletti, in which case it's just another day at the office), and spending a ton of money on a reliever that will be 33 when the season opens who has had a history of injury problems is even more stupid. It's funny though, because Soriano has been given the "capital C Closer" tag, despite being a full-time closer for only three seasons. Even when healthy, Soriano hasn't been dynamic, posting a two win year just once. A team signing him long-term is just begging for things to not end well.
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