From last Wednesday's season preview of the Astros...

Burning Question
How is Brett Myers going to respond for being moved into the closer's role for the first time since 2007?

The Astros traded their 2011 closer, Mark Melancon, to the Red Sox in exchange for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Wieland. Lowrie is already the starter at short for the Astros, and Wieland will probably crack their rotation sooner rather than later. So that trade gave the team an opening at the closer's position. Instead of giving the postiion to a live arm youngster who could potentially develop into something, Houston took a unique approach to the position by planting veteran starter Brett Myers into the position.

Myers has been a full-time reliever for exactly one season in his career: 2007 with the Phillies, where 48 of his 51 appearances came in relief. He saved 21 games for the Phillies, and had a 4.33 ERA over 68 2/3 innings. He walked 3.54 batters per nine innings (the highest mark of his career since he was a 23 year-old), allowed 1.18 homers per nine innings (actually lower than his career average of 1.27 per nine), and had a 45.8% groudball rate (second lowest of his career). But with those numbers came one positive: during his stint as closer, Myers had a career high 10.88 strikeout rate.

Myers is in the last year of a two-year deal signed prior to the 2011 season, and will make $11 million this year. The club also holds a $10 million option on Myers for 2013 that will more than likely be bought out for $3 million. In 2010, his first with the Astros (on a one year deal), Myers lived up to the $5.1 million he made, accruing 4.0 fWAR with a 3.14 ERA. But last season, he was a disaster, with a 4.46 ERA and just 1.5 fWAR to his credit.

Houston's shift of Myers to the closer's role signifies that they want to go young in the rotation. This makes sense with their current rotation composition, which consists of four young starters and the ageless Livan Hernandez. What doesn't make sense to me is why they just didn't role with Myers instead of Hernandez in the rotation, and then using someone else in the closer's role. Hell, they have one of Ed Wade's most notorious mistakes, Brandon Lyon, sitting in the bullpen making $5.5 million this year, and he's got much more closing experience than Myers. Maybe the injury that limited him to just 13 innings last year played a role in that decision. 

It just seems silly for Houston to throw a high-paid veteran in a role that could easily be filled by someone with a live arm in the minors. I know new GM Jeff Luhnow is just trying to clean up Wade's mess, but he's doing it in a little bit of an odd way.

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The Diamondbacks completed a miraculous transformation from 2010 to 2011, going from last in the division to first. Their attack was led by a good, young starting rotation, and a potent offense led by MVP candidate Justin Upton. GM Kevin Towers tinkered with his team this offseason, and manager Kirk Gibson has an extremely talented young squad that is looking to repeat as NL West champions.

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End of Season Postmortem
Top Ten Prospects
You May Say I'm a Dreamer

Heading into September, it didn't look like the St Louis Cardinals would be playing October baseball. But the stars aligned for St Louis  in September. They went on a crazy run and stole the NL's wild card slot away from the Atlanta Braves, who collapsed in horrific fashion over the season's final month. In the playoffs, the Cardinals dispatched the team with the best record in baseball (Philadelphia) in the NLDS, the team that beat them for the division title (Milwaukee) in the NLCS, and won a thrilling a seven game World Series against the two-time AL champions (Texas). Then, it all went to hell in the offseason when Albert Pujols, the face of the franchise, left down. But this Cardinals team is still damn good on paper, and is one of three early favorites in the NL Central.

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End of Season Postmortem
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You May Say I'm a Dreamer

As we pitted each bracket winner against each other in the quarterfinals, we expected the results to be a lot closer than they were. Shows what we know. We now have our Final Four, featuring three movies I absolutely adore, and one I'm not a huge fan of (but that has gotten a relatively easy draw so far). The Sandlot and Major League are battle-tested, playing through the two toughest brackets, and pretty much rolling the competition in each. As for Bull Durham and Ken Burns' Baseball, they've similarly rolled the competition in their brackets, though the competition hasn't been as fierce. I almost think the Sandlot-Major League bout is essentially the tournament final, but you never know. Voting on these two polls will end on Wednesday night, and your FINALS will be up on Thursday morning.

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From my season preview of the Tigers on Wednesday...

Burning Question
Is Detroit's offense going to be the best in the American League this year?

Let's look at this question statistically. The Tigers return most of their offense, but have a couple of change. Victor Martinez will miss the season, and will (essentially) be replaced by Prince Fielder. Brandon Inge isn't a starter anymore, and is essentially going to be replaced by Andy Dirks. Brennan Boesch is going full-time in right field to replace Magglio Ordonez. Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Austin Jackson, Ryan Raburn, and a full season of Delmon Young will be returning.

Well...what's that tell us? Dirks had a .702 OPS last year, but that's a huge upgrade over the .558 mark posted by Inge in 2011. The broken down Magglio Ordonez had a horrendous .634 season, while the perennial platooner Bosch had a .798 season. The big switch, going from Martinez to Fielder, results in a jump from an .850 OPS (Martinez) to a .981 mark from Fielder. So all three switches that the Tigers made on offense this offseason should result in more runs coming across the plate for them. 

One thing that just looking at OPS doesn't tell us about is injury. The Tigers took a roundabout approach of improving their team. Instead of the seemingly obvious move of just throwing Fielder at DH and calling it a day, the Tigers are starting him at first, moving first baseman Cabrera to third, and DHing Young. Cabrera has already taken a ground ball off of his face and broken his lower orbital bone. Fielder has been the model of health, but having Cabrera (the team's best offensive player) at third base is begging for another bad injury. 

If something happens to Cabrera, the Tigers won't necessarily be in trouble, but they'll have an uphill battle. He had a 1.034 OPS last season as one of the best hitters in baseball. Throwing Inge, who had an OPS nearly 500 points lower than Cabrera's last season, at third to replace Cabrera would help out defensively, but would be a complete disaster on offense. Injuries really do happen, and it would benefit the Tigers a lot more if someone like Dirks or Young got hurt than if Cabrera, Fielder, or Avila were injured. Imagine if Avila, who broke out in a big way last season with an .895 OPS, took a foul tip to his throwing hand and broke it. Detroit's backup catcher is Gerald Laird, who had a .660 OPS last season as the Cardinals backup and had OPSes of .626 and .567 with the Tigers in 2009 and 2010. That would be a major blow to Detroit's offense. But if Dirks of Young got hurt, the team could easily plug someone in, be it a bench player like Don Kelly (.672 OPS in 2011), a career minor leaguer, or a cheap veteran looking for work.

Detroit's offense vastly improved this offseason, and they were a top five unit in 2011. It's completely conceivable that their offense could be the best in the game. As long as the Tigers avoid injuries, they have to be considered a threat to score 900 runs.

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As first reoported on Twitter by Ken Rosenthal and later confirmed by others: Reds closer Ryan Madson will require Tommy John surgery, and will miss the entire 2012 season.

This is obviously a massive blow for the Reds. Madson was one of their prize acquisitions of the winter, and a bargain at just one year, $8.5 million. Apparently, the new Reds closer will be Sean Marshall, and Aroldis Chapman (who I just wrote about this morning) will spend the 2012 season in the bullpen for the Reds.

Thankfully for the Reds, they traded for Marshall and locked him up this offseason. If they hadn't, Cincinnati would have been forced to throw an erratic Chapman into the closer role, or go with a more mediocre reliever at the position, like Nick Masset. 

Madson's injury illustrates two points. First, this is why you don't give relief pitchers long-term deals and/or big money. They all usually throw harder, and have a higher risk of injury, such as in this situation. At least now for the Reds, they're only out one year and $8.5 million as opposed to being out that much, and having a recovering reliever on the payroll for the next couple seasons. Secondly, this shows us why relievers should jump at long-term deals if offered instead of settling for a one-year deal and wait for the next free agency period. Something like this can happen, and next winter, Madson will be lucky to deal worth a quarter of what he's making this year.

This is an awful situation for both parties, but the Reds at least have a contingency plan in place. As for Madson, he's pretty much out of luck.

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From last Tuesday’s Reds season preview…

Burning Question
Where does the future for Aroldis Chapman lie: in the rotation, or in the bullpen?

The Reds seem utterly confused as to what to do with their high-priced Cuban acquisition. The team signed him to a six year, $30.25 million contract prior to the 2010 season and, after less than 100 innings in the minors in 2010, had him make his major league debut in September 2010 as a reliever. In his stint at AAA Louisville in 2010, Chapman made 13 starts and 25 relief appearances. He struck out 122 and walked 52 in 94 2/3 innings. The Reds threw him in the bullpen instead of trying him as a starter, and he remained there for the 2011 season.

In the majors in 2011, Chapman had a trying year. In his 50 major league innings, all coming in relief, he struck out 71. Unfortunately for him, he also walked 41, which is unbelievably too many. Now, the battle ranges between the front office and the on-field staff. The front office of the Reds, led by GM Walt Jocketty, apparently wants to send Chapman to AAA in order to stretch him out as a potentially dominant starter. The Reds on-field staff, led by the master of shredding young arms, Dusty Baker, apparently wants to throw Chapman in the bullpen again and groom him for the closer’s role.

So this begs the question: what should the Reds do with Chapman? In his stint in the majors in 2010, Chapman’s average fastball velocity was 99.6 mph. Yes, his average velocity was nearly triple digits. Last season, for a full year in the majors, that velocity dipped to “only” 97.9. Still, that’s an outstanding number. If Chapman was a reliever, he’d be able to retain velocities that high. He threw his fastball 76.5% of the time in 2010, and an outrageous 84.3% of the time in 2011. For 2011, his average velocity was second among all relievers (behind only Henry Rodriguez of the Nationals), and his fastball usage was third (behind Kenley Jansen and Matt Thornton).

What worries me about Chapman is his pitch selection. He’s only shown off two pitches in the majors: the debilitating fastball, and a vicious slider. Even the two pitchers ahead of him in fastball usage have more than two pitches, with Jansen adding a rarely used curve and change to his fastball/slider combo, and Thornton using a slider and cutter equally, while rarely sprinkling in a change.

Here’s the deal. The Reds are paying Chapman a ton of money, and the absolute peak value you can get out of a reliever is three wins in a perfect year. If Chapman doesn’t start walking fewer hitters, he will never approach that peak value. By the same token, if he doesn’t develop a third pitch, he’s not going to be an effective starter, because it’s not possible for a human being to throw 98 mph for seven innings 30 times a year. Only three starters threw fastballs more than 70% of the time last year: Justin Masterson, Bartolo Colon, and David Price. None of the three had a velocity of higher than 95 mph. All had at least three pitches (though Masterson rarely uses his change). Only two starters averaged 95 mph for the season: Alexi Ogando and Justin Verlander. Both have more than two pitches.

It would probably be most wise for the Reds to start Chapman off at AAA this year, try to get him stretched out, and get him to develop another pitch. If he can average 95 in the rotation with three pitches, then he can really be something special as a starter. Also, it’s not as if Chapman is old and this is a last-ditch effort to get him to stick in the majors. He’s 24 years-old and has thrown less than 175 professional innings over two seasons. The Reds have an asset in Chapman, and they’ve got him under their control for a few more seasons. Why not try to get the most out of their asset instead of taking the easy way out and potentially wasting it, like the Yankees did with Joba Chamberlain?

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From Tuesday's season preview of the Cleveland Indians...

Burning Question
Can the revamped Cleveland rotation propel them into contention in 2012?

Cleveland completely revamped their rotation for the 2012 season, adding Ubaldo Jimenez for a full year (after acquiring him for the final two months last July), and veterans Derek Lowe and Kevin Slowey. Those three join 2011 holdovers Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin to make up the Tribe's front five. The artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona (Roberto Hernandez) won't be with the team until later this season, if at all, due to his identity crisis in the Dominican. Carlos Carrasco will miss the season following Tommy John surgery last year.

Masterson was the only Indians starter last year to post more than 1.8 fWAR, logging 4.9 in 216 innings. He's the ace of the staff, and one of the more underappreciated pitchers in the league. His peripherals aren't bad, with a 6.58 strikeout rate and 2.71 walk rate last year, but his 0.46 homer rate and 55.1% groundball rate are glorious. The 3.21 ERA and 3.28 FIP point to extended success in his career, especially next year. At just 27 years old, he'll be the Indians' Opening Day starter this season.

Tomlin was second on the team with 1.8 fWAR, but his peripherals baffle me. He only struck out 4.84 batters per nine innings and allowed 1.31 homers per nine, but buffered that with a miniscule 1.14 walk rate. I'm scared for Tomlin in the future, because if that walk rate spikes, his low ground ball rate and high homer rate will cause his ERA to skyrocket. Even with everything going right with his control last year, he still had a 4.25 ERA and 4.27 FIP. I'm sure Cleveland would have rather had Carrasco in their rotation than Tomlin, but his injury pretty much submarined that.

Jimenez got a raw deal last season for Cleveland in his 11 starts with the team. Despite a 5.10 ERA, he had just a 3.85 FIP. Jimenez struck out 8.54 batters per nine innings while walking 3.72 per nine, consistent with his career marks. A 61.9% strand rate caused his ERA to go through the roof, and once that stabilizes, he'll be a great complement for Masterson in the Indians rotation.

Now, the two new arrivals this offseason. We'll start with Lowe, the former Brave. Lowe wore out his welcome in Atlanta due to a $15 million per year contract and a knack for mediocrity. Three straight sub-3.0 fWAR (and 4.00+ ERA) seasons earned him the ire of Braves fans, despite posting FIPs under 4.00 in his final two seasons and over 185 innings each year. The Indians will be paying just $5 million for Lowe this year, and the makes his performance a lot more tolerable. Like Masterson, Lowe gets groundballs in bunches, which was a demerit for him last season with the Braves having awful infield defense at three of the four positions. If Masterson can thrive in Cleveland with his style of pitching, Lowe can too. He's not the same pitcher that he was with the Dodgers a few years ago, but he's still a useful rotation piece.

And then, there's Kevin Slowey. Cleveland has familiarity with him after his years with the Twins, but he's more of a back-end guy. He possesses fantastic control, walking just 1.42 batters per nine innings, but like Tomlin, has a homer problem, allowing 1.42 per nine over his career. Unlike Tomlin though, Slowey can get strikeouts: 6.67 per nine innings over his career. Last season was an odd one for Slowey, with a sub-60% strand rate giving him an ERA more than two runs higher than his FIP. Over his brief, 59 inning season, Slowey walked just five hitters...and allowed ten homers. Something as divergent as that likely won't happen again in 2012, but he could be a solid four or five for the Twins.

Overall, the Indians rotation DID improve going into 2012...but by how much? Jimenez for a full year is better than Carmona/Hernandez, Lowe is probably worse than Carrasco, and Slowey is about the same as the Talbot/Gomez/Huff trinity form last year. I think Cleveland's 2013 rotation will be even better though, with Masterson, Jimenez, and Carrasco leading the charge. But for now, Cleveland's 2012 rotation is a mild improvement over that in 2011. I don't think it's enough to surpass the Tigers, though.

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From my Cubs season preview on Monday...

Burning Question
Is the Cubs rotation solid enough to break .500 after Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster?

You know what you're getting out of Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster: 15 or so wins, maybe 200 strikeouts, and an ERA lower than 4.00. Those are two legitimate, solid starting pitchers who could go for nearly any team in the league.

But then, there are...the others.

Chicago's final three starters as of right now are Pirates castoff Paul Maholm, converted reliever Jeff Samardzija, and former Marlins soft-tosser Chris Volstad. That is not a murderer's row that strikes fear into the hearts of all. Hell, let's throw Randy Wells in the mix too, because he's essentially the sixth starter right now. So, looking at those four pitchers, are you really getting scared as a Cubs opponent?

We'll start with Maholm. His innings pitched have gone down in each season since 2008, and his groundball rate has gone down in each of those four seasons as well. He's been a solid two or three win pitcher, but his stats don't blow you away overall. He strikes out 5.55 batters per nine innings in his career, and walks 3.01 per nine. Away from PNC Park over his career, he has a 5.03 ERA and 4.47 FIP. Moving to Wrigley Field, which has the tendency to be an extreme hitter's park when the wind is blowing out, could be a disaster for him.

In parts of four seasons in the majors, all but three appearances of which have been spent in the bullpen, Samardzija has accrued 0.3 fWAR and has a 4.40 ERA and 4.54 FIP. Control has been a major issue for him, walking 5.30 batters per nine innings. His main asset, a fastball that averaged 95.1 miles per hour last season, will be dampered in the rotation, where he'll be expected to throw 80 or 90 pitches a start instead of 15 or 20. Instead of going all-out, he'll need to manage his velocity better...which in turn, robs him of his best weapon. Last season was the year that showed Cubs management that Samardzija could be a starter, as he struck out nearly a batter per inning with an ERA under 3.00 and posted a 0.51 homer rate, more than 2/3 less than the rate he posted in 2011. However, he still walked over five batters per inning.

Volstad has spent his entire four season career as a starter for the Marlins, and he's been thoroughly unremarkable. He has a lot of the same characteristics as Maholm: not a lot of strikeouts (5.83 per nine), a lot of walks (3.14 per nine), and he allows a lot of homers (1.11 per nine). The homer rate is odd when you consider his over 50% career groundball rate. Put it all in a blender and you have a guy with an ERA of 4.59 and a FIP of 4.52 who is homer happy, and going to a park where homers tend to happen in bunches. I don't see this ending well at all.

Wells is the incumbent Cubs starter among this quartet, but he has the same problems as Maholm and Volstad. Seriously? He has a career 5.95 strikeout rate, 2.86 career walk rate, and a 1.01 career homer rate. However, he's got a 4.01 career ERA and 4.24 career FIP, which looks better than the other two. But yet....the Cubs immediately dump him from the rotation for two inferior pitchers? Zuh?

Out of these four, Wells is probably the safest bet, Samardzija provides the biggest risk and the biggest reward, and Volstad and Maholm are wild cards that are essentially the same pitcher as Wells, but two guys who are moving into an unfamiliar environment in Chicago. Looking at these four, I don't see any way that they're all above average. I'd be shocked if more than one of them had an ERA under 4.00.

If I had to take one, I'd probably roll the dice and take Samardzija, just because of his tantalizing upside and the ability to throw him back in the bullpen if things don't work out, a benefit that wouldn't work well with any of the other three. As for Maholm, Volstad, and Wells, it really doesn't matter. They're all the same guy. Ride the hot hand, I guess.

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For a brief time this past July, the Pirates were in first place in the NL Central. The Pittsburgh Pirates, in first place, after the All-Star Break, in 2012. This is real life. Then, they summarily collapsed and finished in fourth place with 90 losses. This offseason, they took a huge step towards building a solid future by giving Andrew McCutchen a nice contract extension. But then, they did some things that just seemed to be typical Pirates.

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End of Season Postmortem
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You May Say I'm a Dreamer