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2012 season preview: New York Mets

Written by Joe Lucia on .

metsThe Mets continued their path of cutting payroll that started after the 2010 season. The team slashed $60 million off payroll, and the squad that's left really doesn't look like it will make it out of the basement of the NL East. Strange things have happened in this crazy game of baseball, but I don't think "New York Mets: 2012 NL East champions" has a snowball's chance in Hell of going down.

Mets on TOC
End of Season Postmortem
Top Ten Prospects
You May Say I'm a Dreamer 

2012 season preview: New York Yankees

Written by Joe Lucia on .

yankeesThe 2011 season seemed like the typical New York Yankees season. They won an AL-high 97 games and the AL East division crown....and then lost to the Tigers in five games in the ALDS. The Yankees are mainly an older team, and they didn't get much younger this offseason....with one notable exception.

Yankees on TOC
End of Season Postmortem
Top Ten Prospects
You May Say I'm a Dreamer 

2012 burning question: Miami Marlins

Written by Joe Lucia on .

From my Marlins season preview earlier today...

Burning Question
The Marlins clearly have the talent to win the NL East this year. But will the team's chemistry hold up and enable them to reach the lofty goals they've set for themselves this offseason?

There are a lot of huge personalities in the Miami Marlins clubhouse, and those personalities aren't limited to just the players. Manager Ozzie Guillen is legendary for his outspoken attitude, and owner Jeffrey Loria makes no qualms about stating what's on his mind to the media. On any normal team, having two non-players as volatile as Guillen and Loria would be reason enough to expect a dysfunctional atmosphere, but things are a little more extreme with the Marlins.

Star left fielder Logan Morrison is a Twitter addict, often speaking his mind without a filter. The team sent him down to AAA last year, seemingly as a punishment for his loose fingers on Twitter. Morrison isn't afraid to speak his mind, much like his manager, another Twitter icon.

Hanley Ramirez, the team's new third baseman after spending his entire career at shortstop, has gotten into clubhouse fights, reportedly clashing with former managers Fredi Gonzalez and Edwin Rodriguez. Guillen won't put up with Ramirez's crap like the other two did, and that could be exactly what the superstar needs. Or, it could result in Ramirez taking his games and sniping to the next level. Ramirez ran Gonzalez out of town by consistently disrespecting him, and when Gonzalez tried to punish him, Loria wouldn't let him. Rodriguez also resigned last summer in the wake of more Ramirez drama during the first bad season of his career.

There's also new starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano, who has fought with teammates in the dugout, thrown at players repeatedly in an attempt to get ejected, and walked out of the clubhouse claiming to be retired during his tenure as a Cub. Of course, Zambrano is unbelievably talented when his head is in the game....the problem is, that doesn't seem to happen very often.

Florida also has a few veterans on the team who have never had issues that have come close to resembling the issues brought by those players, most notably, Mark Buerhle and Heath Bell, a pair of free agents signed by the team this offseason. Another big free agent signing, Jose Reyes, has had problems in New York, but nothing close to the levels of insubordination put forward by Ramirez or Zambrano.

This Marlins team is huge on personalities. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as the club is going to be a blast to cover in 2012. But at the same time, those huge personalities could turn into a giant car wreck as the season goes on. Imagine if Guillen tries to bench Ramirez. The two would probably get into a pissing match, and then Guillen would tell Loria off when he tries to tell Ozzie what to do.

This could be an absolute disaster. But at the same time, this could be a championship contender. It's really quite fascinating.

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2012 burning question: Boston Red Sox

Written by Joe Lucia on .

From today's Red Sox season preview...

Burning Question
Will the back-end of Boston's rotation be adequate enough to hang on in the AL East? This would be a fantastic rotation with Matsuzaka and Lackey filling the final two slots, but based on the crop of starter vying for the four and five positions right now, things could get substantially sticky for the Red Sox.

Boston's top three pitchers are set: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz. We're not talking about them. We're talking about the guys that FOLLOW them in the rotation. Right now, converted reliever Daniel Bard and former top Tigers and Marlins top prospect Andrew Miller are slotted into the final two slots. But Boston has brought in a ton of veterans to compete with those two. Those veterans consist of Aaron Cook, Ross Ohlendorf, Vicente Padilla, Brandon Duckworth, and Carlos Silva.

None of those seven names strike fear into my heart. Duckworth didn't pitch in the majors at all in 2011, and actually hasn't been there since 2008 when he had a stint with the Royals. Last year, he spent the season at AAA Pawtucket for the Red Sox, and in 118 innings, he had a 3.97 ERA with a 2.10 strikeout to walk ratio. But at 36, his best days are clealry behind him. Silva also didn't see any time in the majors in 2011, and only threw 36 innings in the minors for the Yankees. In 23 AAA innings, he had a 3.52 ERA. I think you can cross both of these guys off of the list of possible rotation candidates for Boston.

Out of the other five contenders, Cook threw the most innings out of the bunch...with 97. Seriously? Cook looks done, though. In those 97 innings, he had a 6.03 ERA while striking out 48 and walking 37. Cook has never been much of a strikeout artist, but this is just getting out of hand. Plus, his average fastball velocity has been dipping consistently, down to 88 miles per hour last season. That won't cut it in the AL East.

What about Padilla? He only threw 8 2/3 innings in 2011 after battling neck injuries, but was shocking effective in 2010 for the Dodgers, starting 16 games while striking out 84 and walking 24. Padilla's major problem that year is one that's plagued him his entire career: home runs. He allowed a whopping 14 homers in those 95 innings. However, if healthy, Padilla might not be so bad for the Red Sox.

Ohlendorf fell out of favor with the Pirates of all teams after an 8.15 ERA in 38 2/3 innings in 2011. He couldn't hack it in the NL Central, and would get annihilated in the AL East.

That brings us to the two favorites right now, Bard and Miller. Bard has impressive peripherals as the primary setup man for Jonathan Papelbon last season, striking out 74 and walking 24 in 73 innings. But here's the thing about Bard: he hasn't started since 2007 in the low minors. His statline that season? 75 innings, 47 strikeouts, 78 walks, and a 7.08 ERA. And the Red Sox think this guy can slide right into the rotation without missing a beat? 

Then, there's Miller. He's battled with control for his entire career, and last year wasn't excluded from that sample. He threw 65 innings, struck out 50, and walked 41. Oh, and he allowed eight homers. A contender is going to give this guy a shot in their rotation? Seriously?

Boston's best option is to probably roll the dice with Padilla and Miller, and to keep Bard as an ace setup man. It's a pretty bad sign for the franchise that the normally buy happy Red Sox stood pat after the injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey. But then again, Boston could just be using 2012 as a standby year while waiting for their pitchers to get healthy.

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Wax pack memories: 1980s Donruss Diamond Kings

Written by Joe Lucia on .

Despite their popularity among fans, Donruss's Diamond Kings subset (and later, insert set) wasn't included in the company's debut set in 1981. The '81 Donruss set was riddled with errors, and missed out on some of the key rookie cards of the year, like Kirk Gibson and Fernando Valenzuela. But then again, it was the first baseball set that the company had ever made, and these errors were expected.

1982 brought more innovations to Donruss, including one that would become the company's hallmark during its existence: the Diamond Kings. The Diamond Kings were designed to highlight the best players in the league, and instead of the typical posed shot of the player that populated nearly all baseball cards up to that point in time, the Diamond Kings featured paintings done by artist Dick Perez. The cards immediately were a hit with collectors, and were a hallmark of the company until 1996.

In this piece (and one more coming tomorrow), and I'm going to look at the best and worst Diamond Kings from each year. This post will cover the 1980s, and tomorrow, we'll look at the 1990s. Now keep in mind, I'm not looking at the art on the card. Say what you want to say about Perez's art, but the man clearly has a gift for art, and did a solid job on most of the pieces.

The Diamond Kings were supposed to highlight the best of the best, yet sometimes, they missed the mark. Here are the best and worst Diamond Kings of the 1980s.

The Dodgers 13-man pitching staff is the Bad Spring Training Decision of the Day

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

Dodgers BullpenToday's Bad Spring Training Decision of the Day is less of a decision and more of a cautionary tale.  According to some sort of blend of real reporting and mere speculation, Buster Olney believes that the LA Dodgers might start the season with a pitching staff of not 11, not 12 but 13 pitchers.

The Dodgers have quietly put together what could be a pretty good bullpen, with Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Mike MacDougal, Todd Coffey and others. It's possible they will open the season with 13 pitchers on their roster -- and it's the flexibility of Jerry Hairston, who can play infield and outfield, that makes this a possibility.

As Olney states, the Dodgers have a plethora of talented relievers.  What he doesn't state is the reasoning behind wanting to carry so many extra relievers.  Normally a team doubles down on their quantity of relievers to mask a deficiency in quantity, not to enhance it.  The problem with having eight relievers on the active roster is that manager Don Mattingly, or any manager really, is going to feel compelled to use all of the relievers.  That means voluntarily handing innings that could go to Guerra, Jansen or Guerrier over to the likes of journeyman Jamey Wright or some unproven prospect.  This is a textbook case of where less is more, as in less other relievers on the staff means getting to use the better relievers more.

Of course, maybe that is what the Dodgers are worried about, taxing their relief staff.  If that is the case, they must be really worried about some of their bullpen arms holding up to hefty workloads as a 12-man pitching staff has proven to be more than adequate at protecting overuse of relievers so long as the manager is smart about it.

But where this plan really falls apart is that it limits the Dodgers to just four bench players.  The sheer nature of National League baseball alone makes this problematic as pinch-hitters and double-switches are an everyday occurrence.  That can be awfully hard to pull of with only three substitutes at their disposal, presuming that Mattingly does what most managers do and always keeps his back-up catcher on the bench in case of emergency.  If Don Mattingly has a need to use a substitute, he may not have a lot to work with when it comes to maximizing match-ups.  And maximizing match-ups is something he will most certainly have to do.  After Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, the Dodgers lineup consists almost entirely of batters that one would strongly consider pinch-hitting for in late-game situations if there is a match-up worth exploiting.  However, those pinch-hitters might not be available by the time those crucial late-game situations roll around.

The reason for that is the composition of the Dodgers' starting rotation.  They obviously have Clayton Kershaw, but the rest of the rotation is not exactly composed of what one would commonly consider to be innings eaters.  Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano all average almost exactly six innings per start.  To get through games started by those four, the Dodgers are going to need two, three or even four relievers most games.  That many relievers means using two or three pinch-hitters and defensive double-switches too, leaving precious little on the bench to call upon in the bottom of the eighth inning of a tied game and James Loney stuck having to face a quality left-handed reliever that everyone knows he is not going to be able to hit.  But hey, at least the Dodger relievers won't get overworked, right?

Yeah, not such a great idea is it?  Hopefully the Dodgers won't go through with it, assuming they even are considering it like Olney claims.  If they do, they won't be the first team to experiment with such an arrangement, and they won't be the first team to find out first-hand that the arrangement isn't nearly as beneficial as they hoped.

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2012 season preview: Miami Marlins

Written by Joe Lucia on .

marlinsNew ballpark, new colors, new name, new manager, new attitude. The Miami Marlins went into the 2012 offseason with a mission: to improve their team dramatically and becomes a World Series contender in 2012. Sure enough, they brought in marquee free agents and increased the hype level around their team so much that many people are calling for the new-look Marlins to be a contender in the NL East this season.

Marlins on TOC
End of Season Postmortem
Top Ten Prospects
You May Say I'm a Dreamer 

2012 season preview: Boston Red Sox

Written by Joe Lucia on .

redsoxIt was a trying season for the Boston Red Sox in 2011. They started off slow in April, played awesome from May-August, and completely collapsed in September, blowing the wild card on the final day of the season after a late-game rally at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. The Red Sox did a lot of retooling in the offseason, and now look to enter the 2012 season with a more solid foundation to their team, and hopefully a playoff appearance. 

Red Sox on TOC
End of the Season Postmortem
Top Ten Prospects
You May Say I'm a Dreamer 

Ozzie Guillen says Bobby Valentine can go (redacted) himself

Written by Packey on .

Ozzie Guillen was ejected from today's Grapefruit action for arguing a call. Hey, it's Spring Training for fiery managers, too, you know. But that's not where this story ends. Apparently, after Guillen was headed for the showers, the opposing manager, who just happened to be Bobby Valentine, provided Guillen with sort of a 'you're dismissed' wave while saying "see ya."

When Guillen heard about Valentine's sarcastic parting gesture, he said Valentine can go love himself uncomfortably [via WEEI]: 

Guillen did not see or hear Valentine's remarks, but asked how he would have reacted, Guillen made his feelings clear.

"I don't see it. I would have told him to go and [expletive] himself, too," said Guillen, with a laugh. "That's the way Ozzie Guillen is."

Too? Does that mean that's what he told the umpire to do as well or is that how he interprets what Valentine did to mean? Either way, classic Ozzie Guillen.

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2012 burning question: Atlanta Braves

Written by Joe Lucia on .

From my Braves season preview earlier today...

Burning Question
Will Jason Heyward be able to reclaim his 2010 form and carry the team to a playoff berth, or were his struggles in 2011 the signs of a bigger problem? Personally, I think he'll be fine in 2012 because of the shoulder that plagued him in 2011, but if he struggles out of the gate, the Braves mob could begin to mobilize around Heyward with torches.

Jason Heyward's 2010 rookie season, at age 21: .277/.393/.456, 623 plate appearances, 18 homers, 11 stolen bases, .335 BABIP, 14.6% walk rate, 20.5% strikeout rate
Jason Heyward's 2011 sophomore season, at age 22: .227/.319/.389, 456 plate appearances, 14 homers, 9 stolen bases, .260 BABIP, 11.2% walk rate, 20.4% strikeout rate

Now, go ahead and compare those two lines. You see that all three of the triple slash marks were lower in 2011 than in 2010, and that the walk rate also plunged. You can point your finger immediately at one thing: BABIP. Heyward's BABIP fell by 75 points from 2010 to 2011, which can be explained by a number of things....change in approach, injury, crappy luck. All three are probably true, as Heyward never seemed to gel with new hitting coach Larry Parrish and his preaching of aggressiveness, and he injured his shoulder during the spring, and it was with him all season.

The lack of strength in Heyward's shoulder helps account for his decrease in line drive percentage (down to 13.1% from 17.8%), and also his dramatic spike in infield flyball percentage (up to an insane 21.8% from 8.4%). Parrish's approach helps account for the decrease in walk rate, as Heyward's overall swing percentage increased from 39.4% to 44.7%, and his percentage of swings on balls outside of the strike zone rose from 24.4% to 28.8%. I'm not breaking down any walls here, as Heyward's bad 2011 season has been a source of discussion among Braves fans for months, with most coming to the conclusion that it was a complete perfect storm of negativity.

With Parrish being replaced by former White Sox hitting coach Greg Walker, Heyward will probably be reverting to his old swing habits at the plate, which can only mean good things. His shoulder is also healthy after an offseason of mild rehab, which it never was in 2011. Despite a slow start to the spring so far (which quite frankly, nearly everyone on the Braves is suffering from), Heyward should be good to go for the 2012 season. If he's not, the team isn't going to the playoffs. It's really that simple.

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