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Diamondbacks Re-Sign 2B Aaron Hill for 2 Years, $11 Million

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

While the rest of the world waits to find out whether or not Jose Reyes will sign with the Marlins, the Arizona Diamondbacks were busy signing a middle infielder of their own, Aaron Hill.

The Snakes made a mid-season swap of disappointing second baseman by trading Kelly Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Aaron Hill and John McDonald, who the Diamondbacks have already re-signed.  At the time, the D'Backs were trading one problem for another, but banking that they'd at least be getting better defense from Hill and then maybe the switch to the Senior Circuit could rejuvenate his bat as well.

Check and check.

Hill arrived in the desert and helped upgrade the infield defense as promised, but he also raked with his bat, posting a .315/.386/.492 slash line.  Certainly Arizona had to be happy with how that acquisition turned out.  However, they weren't happy enough to exercise the $8 million club option they had on Hill, which is understandable since Hill was coming off a 2010 campaign in which he hit .205 and then posted a meager .313 SLG with Toronto before being traded.  A model of consistency Hill most certainly is not.

With their new two-year, $11 million pact though, the Diamondbacks get to hedge their bets a bit.  At worst, the Diamondbacks are overpaying by a small amount for a veteran second baseman with a reliable glove and a 20-homer bat, though there may not be much batting average or OBP to back up that power.  On the other hand, if Hill is able to put up numbers like he did in his abbreviated debut with the D'Backs, or anything close to it, then they just got themselves two years worth of an All-Star second baseman for about half of the normal going rate.  That definitely sounds like a risk worth taking for the Diamondbacks, with the added bonus that it is another step towards maintaining continuity in a roster that is fresh off a surprising AL West title.

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Cardinals Name Mike Matheny Manager

Written by Joe Lucia on .

It's being reported by Jon Morosi of FOXSports that the defending World Champion St Louis Cardinals have named former Cardinals catcher Mike Matheny as manager. The hiring may come as a surprise to some, who considered long-time Cardinals coach Jose Oquendo as the odds-on favorite to be named the successor to Tony La Russa, who retired this month after leading the Cardinals to their victory in the World Series over the Rangers.

Matheny retired from baseball in 2007 due to post-concussion syndrome, and was an adviser for the Cardinals. He is apparently very well liked by the Cardinals players. It was initially thought that if Oquendo was named the Cardinals manager, star first baseman Albert Pujols would "definitely" remain in St Louis. It's unknown whether or not the hiring of Matheny would change his plans.

Matheny was known as a defensive catcher during his playing career, winning four Gold Glove awards while only compiling a .637 OPS during his career. He played with the Brewers, Blue Jays, Cardinals, and Giants.

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Did the Phillies Make the Right Choice with Papelbon?

Written by Joe Lucia on .

After all the chaos that unfolded this week for the Philadelphia Phillies, first agreeing but not agreeing with Ryan Madson, and then signing Jonathan Papelbon, there was a general consensus opinion online among Phillies fans and non-Phillies fans alike: that the team would have overpaid for either player. There are just as many critics of the Papelbon deal as there were for the Madson deal. But at the end of the day, it appears that the team was determined to sign a top of the line closer this offseason. Who would have been the better fit for them: Madson or Papelbon?

Looking just at their reputations and history, Papelbon is clearly the better choice. He's been in the league for six years, all spent in Boston, and he was a closer in each season. Papelbon is used to the major market pressure cooker that he'll be faced with in Philly, as a fomer member of the Red Sox. If you're into total saves as a metric to determine how good a closer is (which I am clearly not), Papelbon's total of 219 crushes Madson's 52, a majority of which were accrued in 2011.

Papelbon has superior strikeout and walk rates in comparison to Madson as well, with marks of 10.67 and 2.41 per nine innings topping Madson's 7.81 and 2.73 marks per nine innings. But Madson's rates include failed runs as a starting pitcher. If you compare the two pitchers over the last four years (when Madson became a full-time one inning guy), Papelbon's advantage dims. Madson's strikeout rate rises to 8.91, and his walk rate falls to a rate nearly identical to Papelbon's, at 2.43.

The two pitchers also have a different style, one that favors Madson. Papelbon has thrown his fastball 76.3% of the time over the course of his career, also using a slider and a splitter. Madson has a style primarily less reliant on his fastball, throwing it just 56.7% of the time. He also mixes in a cutter and a changeup. As both pitchers continue to age and lose velocity, Papelbon is in worse shape than Madson due to his reliance on the fastball. 

Over his career, Papelbon has been the better pitcher than Madson. I don't think anyone would argue with that point. But when you're talking four years (or five, if Papelbon's option vests) down the road, who will be the better pitcher? I'd probably lean towards Madson, just because of that final point I made about Papelbon's reliance on his fastball. Once the velocity disappears, Papelbon is going to have to reinvent himself as a pitcher. Madson would be able to thrive without the blistering mid-90s fastball in his arsenal. One point I failed to make: by signing Papelbon, the Phillies will also lose their first round pick in the 2012 amateur draft. For a team that has a farm system weakened by the midseason trade for Hunter Pence, the extra pick would have been really nice.

I don't think Philadelphia would have been best served to pay either pitcher eight figures in 2014 and beyond. They probably could have gotten Madson for cheaper than that if they didn't give him such a high offer to start. Madson on a lower contract will perform much better than Papelbon at the price that the Phillies are going to be paying for the next four or five years.

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Miami Marlins Unveil Their New Uniforms

Written by Matt Lindner on .

Miami Marlins

In the information age, no rebranding effort stays under wraps for very long.

Such is the case with the new Miami Marlins logo, which leaked months ago on internet message boards and social media. When it was first unveiled, reaction wasn't kind. Critics knocked everything about the logo, from the 2-dimensional marlin flying out of the M to the busy color scheme that reminded many of the original technicolor Tampa Bay Devil Rays jerseys from the late '90s. This couldn't possibly be for real, we all thought at the time, not for a team moving in to a $400 million taxpayer funded stadium that seemingly nobody wanted.

The team's existing logo and jerseys weren't all that bad either -- black and teal had been very good to the team, clothing two World Series winners. This new logo couldn't possibly be for real, could it?

Turns out it was.

Jamey Carroll Good Fit for the Twins

Written by Tim Livingston on .

The Minnesota Twins just agreed to a 2-year, $7 million contract with former Dodgers middle infielder Jamey Carroll on Friday. Carroll is being signed to be the everyday shortstop for the Twins, a year after the signing of Tsuyoshi Nishioka turned out to be a failure on EVERY level and options like Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert and the immortal Trevor Plouffe got chances to play in the 6-hole in 2010 to some pretty unsubstantial numbers.

Carroll has basically been a part-timer for all but a few seasons in his career, initially being drafted and coming out of the Montreal Expos system. He broke out in 2006 with the Colorado Rockies with a .300/.377/.404 split while playing great defense at the keystone, but didn't live up to that in the years that followed with the Rockies, going to Cleveland soon after. He then signed with the Dodgers in 2010 and emerged as a versatile player with a good bat that played well at the top of the lineup in front of guys like Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. His career line of .278/.356/.348 is pretty good for a utility guy, and his strides forward over the last few seasons to really improve his struggling plate discipline after his post-'06 decline have made him an effective player to an average of about 2 fWAR per year since '09. His average on balls in play also plays up due to his line drive hitting ways (23.5% in LA in 2011), and he can also leg out some infield hits on ground balls.

The best thing Carroll is going to do for the Twins is bring value to a position they've been lacking for a long time. Save for J.J. Hardy's time there (and even then, he was league average), Minnesota has been looking for a regular shortstop since the trade of Jason Bartlett to the Tampa Bay Rays back in 2008. Carroll brings stability and a good eye at the plate, although his defense is below average. The bright side is that Carroll can do things at the plate that the previous Twins shortstops couldn't, and he should be a good fit atop an order that should see the return of Denard Span after his concussion issues.

For the price they got him at, the Twins should be very happy with their investment in Carroll, as the shortstop market was light after Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, both of whom weren't on the Twins radar in the first place. For returning general manager Terry Ryan, who replaced his replacement Bill Smith on Tuesday, it's a good move to help hold over the team for the meantime while they figure out how to improve on a 63-win season and find their way back to the top of American League Central race.

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Phillies Reverse Course, Sign Papelbon to Close

Written by Joe Lucia on .

On Tuesday, we reported that the Philadelphia Phillies had signed closer Ryan Madson to a four year, $44 million deal. Wednesday came along, and we learned that the deal was never officially agreed to or approved by Phillies owner David Montgomery. Today, the Phillies stepped away from Madson, and signed former Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon to a four year deal worth upwards of $50 million.

Much of the same things I said about the Madson deal are true about the Papelbon deal. The average of $12.5 million (or thereabouts) that Papelbon will make is tied for the second highest annual average value for a closer, tied with former Phillie Brad Lidge (shocking), and just behind Papelbon's former nemesis in New York, the legendary Mariano Rivera.

2011 was one of Papelbon's best seasons with the Red Sox, at the age of 30. He saved 31 games (which was actually a career low), had a 2.94 ERA (second highest of his career), but posted a 12.17 strikeout rate and a 1.40 walk rate, both of which were the second best marks of his career. He was worth 3.0 fWAR. His good 2011 season comes on the heels of a disappointing 2010, where Papelbon had a career worst 3.90 ERA.

The deal is paying Papelbon based on the assumption that 2011 is the norm for him. Over his six year career, he's averaged 2.5 fWAR a season, so the Phillies are once again overpaying slightly, paying Papelbon $5 million per win as opposed to the usual norm of $4.5 million. But here's the problem: Phillies GM Ruben Amaro is assuming that Papelbon is going to have the same performance over the next four years, entering his mid-30s, as he did during his seasons in his mid to late 20s. Papelbon will be 31 when the deal starts. He's maintained his fastball velocity over his career, but this is at the point where pitchers start losing it.

I don't think the Papelbon signing is as much of a risk as the initially reported Madson signing. Papelbon is an established, top-tier closer, albeit one that's about to start the downswing of his career. Madson is less experienced, and he's actually three months OLDER than Papelbon. But handing out eight figures to a reliever is a risky move, especially when the deal totals close to $50 million. It seems like an un-necessary risk for a team that just suffered through three years of Brad Lidge's ill-advised contract.

UPDATE: Jayson Stark just reported on Twitter that the deal also includes a vesting option that could push the total value over $60 million. Someone take away Ruben Amaro's phone. PLEASE.

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Reaping What You Sow: Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Prospects

Written by Mark Smith on .

Top10

oriolesWith thanks to Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies, this is the sixth installment of our Top 10 prospect lists. At this point, we've had the Padres, Pirates, Nationals, Angels, Tigers, and Orioles, and the Rockies, Reds, and Braves are headed your way next week. Remember, there's a 2012 Baseball America Prospect Handbook on the line for the first person to guess my method of selecting the next teams.

It really has to suck to be the Baltimore Orioles right now, no offense to Daniel Moroz. They have to face the two premier financial powerhouses in the Yankees and Red Sox, the extremely resourceful Rays, and the rising Blue Jays who are about two steps ahead of the Orioles at the moment, especially in regard to the farm system. One of the worst things about all of it is that the Orioles had such a bright outlook a few years ago due to a farm system brimming with young talent, but as an example of how depending on prospects can go horribly wrong, none of the Orioles prospects have really worked out as planned, though Matt Wieters is quietly turning into a very good player.

The only real prospect to make his debut this season for the Orioles, which is a bit surprising considering the shape of the team, and his name was Zach Britton. Depending on how you want to look at it, Britton had a successful rookie campaign. He kept the ball on the ground (1.86 GB/GB), but his strikeout (5.6 per 9) and walk rates (3.6) weren’t stellar. But hey, how many times do you get 2.5 WAR out of your rookie pitcher in the AL East?

Moving down the ladder to the rest of the prospects, the top four prospects in the Orioles system look pretty good. Manny Machado looks a future superstar shortstop, and 2011 fourth pick Dylan Bundy certainly has enough scouts drooling. Jonathan Schoop made significant improvements, and with a few more, he could become a star-level player as well. Hoes has a lower ceiling, but he has a better chance of making and contributing in the majors than any of the other three. But after that, the system drops quickly. Some of the rest are toolsy players that haven’t turned those into skills. Some are new draftees that need to get some experience under their belts. Others are lower-ceiling prospects that are getting close but may not play significant roles in the majors. Every farm system has risks, but this one seems to have a lot of them without the probability or upside that other systems have.

Dan Duquette has just taken over as the Orioles GM, and it remains to be seen what he’ll do to boost the system or if he’ll be allowed to. Peter Angelos is notoriously meddlesome, and with so many of the possible candidates backing out after being interviewed, it seems as though he’s given no one the idea that he’s ready to back down. We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

Elite

Manny Machado     SS

Bats/Throws:     R/R

Height/Weight:     6’3/185

Age/Level (as of 4/2012):     19/High-A

Projection:     4+ WAR

After doing damage in Low-A, Machado had some trouble in High-A, but despite some minor issues there (possibly due to an injury suffered mid-season and age), Machado is still an elite prospect. Shortstops are hard to find, and Machado should be able to stay there, though there are some concerns that he’ll need to move as his frame matures. Offensively, he has an above-average to plus hit tool, and as he gets a little bigger, he should start to hit for more power. You have to really nitpick to find something not to like about him.

Movember MLB Mustache Madness: Wild Card, Round 2 - Bernie Brewer vs. Shoemaker

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

Movember

Our final Movember MLB Mustache Madness matchup of the second round.  What do they have in common?  Well, nothing unless Matt Shoemaker also turns out to be made of felt.

Bernie Brewer

Bernie Brewer

Every single Brewer representative dominated in the first round and Bernie was no exception as he embarrassed Mr. Red Legs by garnering 79% of the vote.

VS.

Matt Shoemaker

Matt Shoemaker

Bryce Harper might be a once in a lifetime prospect, but Shoemaker made him look like a scrub in Round 1, winning with three-fourths of the vote.

Time to vote! (one vote per matchup per day)

[polldaddy]5657391[/polldaddy]

no comments

Movember MLB Mustache Madness: Wild Card, Round 2 - Valentine vs. Ordonez

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

Movember

Four fakes mustaches entered the Movember MLB Mustache Madness Wild Card bracket, but only one is going to leave.

Bobby Valentine

Bobby Valentine fake mustache

I still can't believe that he actually had a fake mustache on standby in case he got ejected.  Dallas Braden still can't believe his fake mustache got beaten 80% to 20% by Bobby V's.

VS.

Magglio Ordonez

Magglio Ordonez

This fake set of facial follicles wasn't used as nefariously as Valentine's, but does that really make it better?

Time to vote! (one vote per matchup per day)

[polldaddy]5657378[/polldaddy]

Are The Marlins For Real About Becoming Big Fish in Free Agency?

Written by Garrett Wilson on .

The Hot Stove League may be off to a tepid start this off-season, but the rumors are finally starting to pick up.  No, it isn't the usual suspects (the Yankees and Red Sox) heating things up, instead, the hottest rumors all seem to be coming from the Marlins.  Say whaaaaaaaaaaaaat?!?!?

Yes, that's right, the fancy new re-branded MIAMI Marlins are in on just about every big name free agent on the market.  They've got their new name, their new big name manager, their new stadium, their new hideous uniforms and now they want some new big name players to turn this team into a real contender.  Or at least that is what they want us all to think.