This is part four of our, er, three-part series inside the minds of the men chasing after Robert Griffin III. We dive back into the head of Mike Shanahan as he mulls his final offer. Read Shanahan's initial thoughts here.
Well, That went well. I chatted with my buddy Mike Holmgren and he was cagey as ever. He gave me nothin' about his Draft strategy. That confirms it. Cleveland will roll the dice for Robert Griffin III.
Redskins fans expect me to try for RG3. I have greater expectations about Peyton Manning's nerve endings that for outbidding Cleveland in the Draft. How would a trade-up scenario work anyway? There are recent two benchmarks for comparison: Julio Jones and Eli Manning.
2012 NFL Draft to Cleveland. By the Draft Chart.
Jones is a receiver. A real benchmark must include first round quarterbacks. In 2004, the Chargers traded Eli Manning to the Giants for Phillip Rivers and New York's 2004 third round pick (65th overall) and 2005 first round and fifth round picks. Manning was the top Draft pick that year, so his chart value was 3,000 points. The Giants gave up a player, Rivers, and about 1,100 points of Draft chart value for a player then worth 3,000 points of chart value and two future Super Bowl wins. This is called larceny.
The ante for Griffin 3rd must be between 1,600 and 3,000 points in chart value and might include a player.
Washington's final trade offer to the Rams to move up to the second overall Draft slot is its 2012 and 2013 first round picks and the fourth round pick received from Oakland for Jason Campbell. I will throw in the Redskins' natural fourth-round pick or TE Chris Cooley (not both) to make this deal work. That's roughly 2,800 points of chart value. And I hope the Rams do not get calls from Miami owner Steve Ross.
That guy is a madman. He's the new Daniel Snyder.
Reference: trade-ups for top-5 pick QBs in the last 25 years
2009: NYJ - Mark Sanchez. Jets trade pick #17 and #52 (1,430 draft points), plus Abram Elam, Kenyon Coleman, and Brett Ratliff to Cleveland for the #5 pick (1,700 draft points).
2004: NYG - Eli Manning. Giants trade Philip Rivers (selected with pick #4), plus three picks detailed above (1,100 draft points) to San Diego for Manning, drafted #1 (3,000 draft points).
1998: SD - Ryan Leaf. Chargers trade pick #3 and #33 in the '98 draft and their first rounder in 1999 (roughly 3,900 draft points) plus Pro Bowl KR Eric Metcalf and LB Patrick Sapp to Arizona to move up one spot (2600 draft points) to draft Leaf. It was one of the highest-risk (and worst) trades in NFL history.
1995: CAR - Kerry Collins. Panthers break the mold and trade down from the #1 pick to get their quarterback. The Bengals gave up the #5 and #36 picks (2240 draft points) to get the #1 pick (3,000) - a bargain. Too bad they spent it on Ki-Jana Carter.
1990: IND - Jeff George. The Colts moved up without sacrificing their own first-rounder from that year, but gave up Pro Bowl WR Andre Rison, Chris Hinton, plus a package of picks (roughly 1,200 draft points) to the Falcons for the #1 pick and Atlanta's fourth-round pick (3,175 draft points).