From the right point of view, it seemed like the 2011 Green Bay Packers might be even better than the 2010 version that almost missed out on the last playoff spot in the NFC before catching fire in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers was playing at an incredibly high level, and you could almost ignore that the defense was much more porous than it was in 2010. Despite a 15-1 record and the top seed in the NFC, the Packers' season ended in disappointment when they gave up 420 yards in a 37-20 defeat to the New York Giants. With Aaron Rodgers and most offensive starters poised to return for another run, can the Packers fix their pass defense and return to the Super Bowl in 2012?

Unlike the Detroit Lions, who mostly had a reasonably decent pass defense, the playoff game wasn't much of an aberration for the Packers' defense in 2011. While the Packers amassed over 5,100 yards passing, they also allowed almost 5,000, 1,500 more than they did in 2010. Including the playoffs, eight times an opponent had at least 300 yards net passing offense. They allowed 29 touchdown passes after only 16 the year before. True, the Packers faced more pass attempts in 2011 than they did in 2010, but even more important was that those attempts were dramatically more effective. My favorite statistic is Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, which takes into account touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks. In 2010, the Packers allowed 4.1 ANYPA, best in the league. In 2011, the Packers allowed 6.0 ANYPA, middle of the pack.

One key reason the Packers' pass defense was less effective was the pass rush fell from excellent to very poor. After 47 sacks compared to 527 pass attempts in 2010 (excluding scrambles), they had only 29 sacks compared to 637 pass attempts. By Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate, which adjusts for down, distance and opponent, they fell from 4th to dead last. Getting the pass rush back to at least league average seems like a reasonable task, and one that should help the Packers' overall pass defense get closer to the 2010 level.

As a means of finding how the Packers might improve, I'll take a look at some players who featured in the outstanding defense of 2010 and who didn't feature the same way in the abysmal pass defense of 2011.

We aren't supposed to take too much stock in what happens at the NFL Combine, which Peter King once named the "underwear olympics." But there are winners and losers each year nonetheless, and nowhere is that more apparent than in this year's mixed-up class of wide receivers. 

Unlike last year, where AJ Green and Julio Jones gave us a consensus top two at the top of the talent chart, dwarfing the rest of the field, this year's group of receivers is remarkably ripe for debate. Assemble any five scouts and you'll get at least three different answers for who the first WR picked should be, with Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd and Alshon Jeffery all collecting votes and plenty of room for underdog picks.

Thousands of hours of tape study among collected scouts haven't broken the logjam, so a few days with measuring tapes and stopwatches threatens to radically reshape our draft expectations. Here's a rundown of winners and losers among the biggest names at the WR position. 

Winners

Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) 

Standing still, Floyd has always looked the part of the #1 wide receiver. He's physically and athletically gifted, one of these players that just looks impressive coming off the bus. His combine measurements -- 6' 2 5/8" and 220 pounds of lean muscle -- only reinforce that impression.

Where he surprised is with his speed. In two unofficial runs at the 40-yard dash, he sprinted out to 4.42 and 4.44 times, far faster than he appears on tape, and plenty fast enough with his size to qualify as a "vertical threat" in an NFL offense. However, many will point out that this speed rarely shows up in game tape.

Floyd has two-pronged character concerns to put to rest, having been officially charged with DUI, and unofficially charged with wildly fluctuating levels of effort at Notre Dame. However, NFL draft analyst Mike Mayock notes that he has "cleaned himself up on and off the field," and had him ranked in the first round before his impressive runs. Now, he may legitimately re-enter discussion as the first WR off the board. 

For draft lovers and college football fans alike, the NFL combine is one of the biggest events of the year. At this point every year, the top NFL prospects gather in Indianapolis to showcase their physical attributes and personalities in an effort to improve their draft stock as much as possible. As with any NFL endeavor, there's winners and losers. Through all the drills, interviews, and tests, what do we actually learn? Well, not very much.

Contrary to where you may think I'm going with this argument, I don't view the NFL combine as a worthless collection of scouts, coaches, and prospects. There's a lot of value to be had with having so many top tier prospects in one place at the same time. The gains made, however, are minimal and reserved on for the most diligent scouts and coaches.

This is my point, a fast 40 time at the combine really doesn't tell us very much. There's hours upon hours of film for us to look at of each players' college days that tell us far more than a 40 yard sprint will ever tell us.

A player that can give us a 42 inch vertical in shorts doesn't tell us anything. Again, there's hours upon hours of game film to tell us whether that player can jump or not.

The real value of the combine is to get accurate measurements of each elite prospect. As much as we'd like to believe our collegiate institutions, their measurements, especially height and weight, are always subject to extreme scrutiny. That's why when we heard that Robert Griffin III was indeed 6'2", we all gave a deep sigh of relief.

My point in all of this is to take coverage of the NFL draft with a grain of salt. Everyone is looking for a story to tell, and the draft is an easy outlet, and at this point the only outlet, to report on. There's value to seeing these guys sprinting and jumping in shorts, but it's minimal. In looking at draft prospects, it's important to consider players' entire lines of work. A receiver running a 4.35 40 time is worthless if he can't catch. Let's watch and read about the combine, consider it's value, and enjoy it. Let's not move a projected first round pick to the third round because he ran a slow time or came in 10 above his playing weight. Let's take the combine for what it is.

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The Ravens were a dropped Lee Evans pass away from a trip to the Super Bowl to play the New York Giants. That kind of heartbreak has to give you the drive to take one more shot at the big game.

That's why I'm not remotely surprised that Ed Reed is preparing to return to the Ravens again in 2012 according to Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome, putting retirement off for at least one more season.

Reed is not "old" by any stretch of the imagination. At just 33 years of age, Reed is still considered to be one of the game's best safeties, and he's gained a reputation as a ball hawk, intercepting 57 passes over the course of his career.

Still, Reed has had health issues that will likely force him out of the league a few years before he'd like to leave. Reed has been contemplating retirement for a few years now, coming very near calling it quits back in 2010. He's had nerve problems in his neck before, and they nearly derailed his career. One has to believe that his neck has played a large role in his long-term decision making.

In speaking with reporters at the NFL combine, Newsome said, "He told John [Harbaugh] that he's going to get himself prepared to come back and play in 2012."

Reed is one of the hardest safeties in the league to account for by offensive coaches. He has an uncanny ability to stay near the ball at all times, often coming out of nowhere to intercept a pass or lay a jarring hit on the ball-carrier. The news should be celebrated in Baltimore since he's one-of-a-kind, and you don't simply replace one-of-a-kind players.

Despite the Ravens' run to the AFC championship game, Reed did not have a good year by his standards. He intercepted just 3 passes all season despite playing in all 16 games. The only time he's intercepted fewer passes in a season throughout his career came in 2005 when he only played in 10 games.

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It's shocking to think that a single player can make so much difference to a team, but the Carolina Panthers leaped from dead last in the league in points scored to 5th - a staggering increase of 30 touchdowns from the previous year. And that was in year one of Cam Newton. What's possible in year two?

That depends on the defense. With two key members of the defense - Jon Beason and Thomas Davis - expecting to come back healthy after missing almost all of last season, expectations might be surprisingly high. Said Beason:

 "No more playing for winning seasons or playing to make the playoffs or to go deep in the playoffs. The pieces are in place to win the whole thing, and that's really how I feel about it. Anything less than at least an appearance (in the Super Bowl) is a weak year."

While a 6-10 finish isn't exactly a record that most teams would be content with, the Carolina Panthers may be one of the few exceptions.

After an atrocious 2-14 campaign in 2010, Carolina had nowhere to go but up – and they did just that. The Panthers tripled their win total in just one year and made a turnaround on offense that nobody saw coming. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton silenced all his doubters in Week 1 and kept them quiet for the remainder of the season.

However, it was the Panthers' defense that proved to be the team's major downfall in 2011. Youth, plus injuries to star linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis played a role in Carolina's defensive struggles this year, but there is also a considerable lack of talent in several areas. Addressing this need is going to be a top priority for defensive-minded coach Ron Rivera's team this offseason. Thanks to some cap mismanagement last year, they may be more heavily dependent on a good draft (and some good fortune) than other teams. 

Since the Patriots acquired Wes Welker in a trade from the Miami Dolphins, he has been nothing short of outstanding. Of Welker's 5 seasons in New England, he has posted over 1,100 yards receiving in four of them, and recovered from last year's injury-hampered season to lead the NFL in receptions. While Welker's production will be criticized as being a product of the system and Tom Brady rather than his own talent, there is no doubting his value to the New England offense. 

In New England Patriots' franchise history, Welker holds the top four spots in receptions per season, and this year set the franchise mark for yardage, with 1,569 yards on 122 catches. While he can't touch Randy Moss's record of 23 touchdowns in a year, he did post the best scoring numbers of his career with 9 TDs this season. 

Despite the fact that Welker will be turning 31 entering next season he has shown no evidence of slowing down. Welker also showed the ability to come back from a pretty serious injury and still be the league's dominant slot man.

However, Welker now enters unrestricted free agency after making a mere $2.15 million dollars last season, and early contract negotiations with the Patriots have not gone as smoothly as he would hope. "I plan on being back so I’m not really too worried about that right now," Welker said during Super Bowl week. While there's little doubt of his leaving for greener pastures, will New England commit to their slot man long-term? Or will they franchise him and look for other options in free agency and/or the draft? 

The answer to this question will dictate their approach to the offseason.   

If the New York Giants hope for regular Super Bowl appearances, they can do no better than to study the team they victimized last February 4. The dynastic New England Patriots won the AFC East eight of the last nine seasons. The sole miss came in 2008 when the Pats, without Tom Brady for most of the season, finished 11-5 but lost the tiebreaker to the Miami Dolphins and ended up becoming the first 11-win team in 23 years to miss the playoffs.

The Patriots have appeared in five Super Bowls since 2001, winning three. Their last two appearances were losses to the Giants, but the Patriots prove that dominating the division is the first step to dynastic intent.

That's not good news for the G-men, due as much to the nature of their "Beast" rivals as because of deficiencies in their own talent.

The Philadelphia Eagles showed division dominance early in the decade, but only clinched the NFC East twice since the 2004 season. They also struggled to make a deep playoff run without Terrell Owens. This year, Andy Reid went all out to boost the Eagles defense by collecting talent and shifting the pass rush to the Wide-9 alignment under Juan Castillo, their former offensive line coach. Someone should have cautioned Philadelphia about expecting instant results. 

The Eagles lost eight of their first 12 games as the defense struggled and QB Michael Vick regressed from his 2010 performance. However, the defense closed strong to push the Eagles to wins in its last four games, and Philadelphia dominated the NFC East 5-1 en route to an 8-8 finish.

The Dallas Cowboys have also won two division titles since 2004. Like the Eagles, they did not go far in the postseason either time. The Cowboys dumped ineffective WR Row Williams and found a budding star in RB DeMarco Murray. Thanks in large part to New York's inability to put the division away, the Cowboys were in the playoff hunt until the Week 17 showdown with the Giants. The G-men opened a 34-14 can of whoopass on the 'Boys to finally clinch a playoff berth.

The Washington Redskins are an afterthought, competitive on defense, but with the worst quarterback situation in the NFC East.

Once the Giants get into the playoffs, their recent record proves them to be as dangerous as any team in the nation. However, their regular season competition stands as the biggest obstacle between them and a dynastic reign over the next few years. The Eagles in particular stack up as the biggest threat to New York's division dominance. How do the Giants stack up against the Eagles and the rest of the division? And how will this arms race affect the Giants' offseason plans? 

The Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 record in 2011 was very misleading. The team fielded the 6th best defense in the league despite struggling to keep defenders healthy, especially in the secondary. Yes, the Jaguars had major issues on the offensive side of the ball, but those problems are treatable in the short term.

In 2012, everything will begin and end with Blaine Gabbert. He made slow progress through much of the season, showing measurable progress only in the latter quarter of the season. To his credit, Gabbert was able to show leadership despite a lack of offensive weapons beyond running back Maurice Jones-Drew. That should change in 2012.

Jaguars general manager Gene Smith has said that the Jaguars will be approaching the offense, especially the wide receiver position, in the same way that they approached the defense last season. Aggressively. The Jaguars will likely combine picking up top level talent in free agency with April's draft to give Blaine Gabbert the offensive weapons he needs to succeed.

New owner Shahid Khan has also been supportive of spending money to win games. He's shown support to the idea of spending close to the salary cap, so it's unlikely the Jaguars will continue to be as reserved as they've been in the past.

The question in Jacksonville is no longer "if" they'll spend money. The question has turned to "who" they'll be spending money on. There are a number of top-tier free agents that they'll be looking into adding to their roster on both sides of the ball.

Dominos fall quickly in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers were widely assumed to be using their franchise player tag on TE Jermichael Finley, and let in-demand backup quarterback Matt Flynn walk. Those circumstances changed dramatically when Ted Thompson came to a two-year agreement with Finley. Within minutes of the announcement of that news, Packers beat reporter Tom Silverstein turned the spotlight to Flynn.

@TomSilverstein: I anticipate the #Packers using the franchise tag on Flynn now. They'll take the $14 million cap hit and then deal him to somebody.

Parsing the rumors floating around online, that unnamed "somebody" essentially boils down to one of two teams - the Seattle Seahawks or the Miami Dolphins. Acquiring Flynn for a big-dollar contract based on his paper-thin body of work already seemed like a risky proposition. Sending high draft picks to Green Bay in the process makes the Kevin Kolb deal look positively sane by comparison.

(How goofy was that deal for Kolb? Arizona can't shake the Matt Flynn rumors this offseason. Could any team really pull off two high-risk trade-and-signs for someone else's benchwarmer in two years?)

For history's sake, let's see where Flynn ranks among recent backups who were acquired to become starters, and for what cost.

1995: Mark Brunell traded to Jacksonville for a 3rd and 5th round pick. 

Brunell, a fifth-round pick in 1993, was Brett Favre's backup in Green Bay for two seasons, throwing a total of 27 passes in the pros when the expansion Jaguars made a deal to acquire him as their starter. Brunell's success (making it to the AFC Championship game in year 2) helped push up the price tag for future deals like this.   

2001: Matt Hasselbeck traded to Seattle for an exchange of 1st round picks, plus a 3rd rounder.

Hasselbeck had a strong supporter in Mike Holmgren, who had drafted him as Favre's backup in 1998 and migrated to coffee country the following year. Like Brunell, Hasselbeck had only thrown a handful of passes (29 to be exact) before being put in trade talks. Despite giving up a first rounder in the deal, Seattle didn't pay too heavy a price. They had the 7th and 10th picks in that draft, and sacrificed the 10th pick for the Packers' 17th, which they turned into potential Hall of Fame caliber guard Steve Hutchinson. 

Hasselbeck himself was either overrated or underrated as a passer for most of his career, depending on who you talked to. But as far as deals go, the Seahawks got a solid long-term starter for a couple handfuls of draft value points.

2004: Matt Schaub traded to Houston for an exchange of 1st round picks, plus a pair of 2nd rounders. 

Houston was in pretty desperate straits after the David Carr experiment had finally ground to a merciful halt. They targeted a relatively high-profile backup in Matt Schaub, a former third-rounder who had thrown 161 passes (along with 6 TDs and 6 INTs) over three seasons in Michael Vick's stead. The Texans paid a hefty price in 2nd round picks, often the most valuable in the draft, and swapped down two spots from #8 overall to #10 to make the deal work. 

2009: Matt Cassel (and Mike Vrabel) traded to Kansas City for a 2nd round pick.

Cassel offers a nearly exact comparable to Flynn's situation, at least from a contract standpoint. After spending seven total years on the bench - four at USC, three in New England - Cassel's name was finally called in relief of Tom Brady. Fully steeped in Josh McDaniels' offense, Cassel threw for 3,693 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs and led the Patriots to an 11-5 record... but amazingly, no playoff spot. Here, the timeline gets a little dicey.

On January 5th, 2009, it was reported that GM Scott Pioli would place the franchise tag on Cassel to keep him out of reach while the team worked out a deal. Less than ten days later, Pioli was hired as GM of the Kansas City Chiefs. On February 5th, the Pats officially placed the tag on Cassel. February 28th, Pioli consummated the deal to bring him to western Missouri.

The deal was relatively friendly in terms of picks, compared to these others, though whether that was a reflection on Cassel's contract requirements or just a gentleman's agreement between Pioli and Belichick is unknown. Regardless, Cassel was still an unrestricted free agent, and that July Pioli signed him to a six-year $63 million megadeal.

(Note: Thanks to @TheSteelersNat for the reminder on Cassel.)     

2011: Kevin Kolb traded to Arizona for a 2nd round pick and former first-rounder Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. 

The success of Brunell pushed up the price tag for Hasselbeck, whose success pushed up the price for Schaub, whose success pushed up the price for Kolb. Kolb's experience in the league - four years played, 7 games started, and more than 300 passes thrown - made for a double-edged sword for the Cardinals, who felt obliged (by Kolb's agent) to sign the quarterback to a long-term deal.

By comparison with these players, Flynn has thrown fewer passes than Schaub (132), but played just as long as Kolb, putting the team that acquires him in immediate contract jeopardy. The Packers are apparently willing to up the ante by putting the franchise tag on him, apparently being willing to pay him $14 million dollars to sit on the bench if no one bites. (In case you were wondering, Aaron Rodgers is scheduled to make $8 million this season.)

Regardless of Kolb's lukewarm start, the price tag in these deals keeps rising. Is Flynn worth a first round pick and a huge contract to any team? Joe Philbin and Stephen Ross in Miami just might have something to say about that.

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The Detroit Lions took a massive leap forward as a team in 2011, returning to the playoffs for the first time since 1999, as Matt Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards and Calvin Johnson led the league in receiving yards en route to being an almost-unanimous All-Pro selection. Their stay in the playoffs would prove short-lived, though, as the New Orleans Saints moved the ball virtually at will. The Saints did that on the heels of Week 17's game against the Green Bay Packers, when a Matt Flynn-led offense did the same. If the Lions are to be a serious Super Bowl contender, they'll need to avoid those defensive disasters in the future. What do they have to do to avoid them, and what role might Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley play going forward?

The first question Lions general manager Martin Mayhew and head coach Jim Schwartz have to answer is, how good exactly was their defense in 2011? Was it as bad as it looked those final two games, when they gave up 45 points both games, the Packers rolled up 469 yards passing and 550 yards total offense and the Saints 459 yards passing and 626 yards total offense?

The answer, somewhat surprisingly, seems to be that it was better than you think, and a lot better than the final two games would indicate. The question is how this self-evaluation will lead this team's approach to the offseason.