It's shocking to think that a single player can make so much difference to a team, but the Carolina Panthers leaped from dead last in the league in points scored to 5th - a staggering increase of 30 touchdowns from the previous year. And that was in year one of Cam Newton. What's possible in year two?

That depends on the defense. With two key members of the defense - Jon Beason and Thomas Davis - expecting to come back healthy after missing almost all of last season, expectations might be surprisingly high. Said Beason:

 "No more playing for winning seasons or playing to make the playoffs or to go deep in the playoffs. The pieces are in place to win the whole thing, and that's really how I feel about it. Anything less than at least an appearance (in the Super Bowl) is a weak year."

While a 6-10 finish isn't exactly a record that most teams would be content with, the Carolina Panthers may be one of the few exceptions.

After an atrocious 2-14 campaign in 2010, Carolina had nowhere to go but up – and they did just that. The Panthers tripled their win total in just one year and made a turnaround on offense that nobody saw coming. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton silenced all his doubters in Week 1 and kept them quiet for the remainder of the season.

However, it was the Panthers' defense that proved to be the team's major downfall in 2011. Youth, plus injuries to star linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis played a role in Carolina's defensive struggles this year, but there is also a considerable lack of talent in several areas. Addressing this need is going to be a top priority for defensive-minded coach Ron Rivera's team this offseason. Thanks to some cap mismanagement last year, they may be more heavily dependent on a good draft (and some good fortune) than other teams. 

Since the Patriots acquired Wes Welker in a trade from the Miami Dolphins, he has been nothing short of outstanding. Of Welker's 5 seasons in New England, he has posted over 1,100 yards receiving in four of them, and recovered from last year's injury-hampered season to lead the NFL in receptions. While Welker's production will be criticized as being a product of the system and Tom Brady rather than his own talent, there is no doubting his value to the New England offense. 

In New England Patriots' franchise history, Welker holds the top four spots in receptions per season, and this year set the franchise mark for yardage, with 1,569 yards on 122 catches. While he can't touch Randy Moss's record of 23 touchdowns in a year, he did post the best scoring numbers of his career with 9 TDs this season. 

Despite the fact that Welker will be turning 31 entering next season he has shown no evidence of slowing down. Welker also showed the ability to come back from a pretty serious injury and still be the league's dominant slot man.

However, Welker now enters unrestricted free agency after making a mere $2.15 million dollars last season, and early contract negotiations with the Patriots have not gone as smoothly as he would hope. "I plan on being back so I’m not really too worried about that right now," Welker said during Super Bowl week. While there's little doubt of his leaving for greener pastures, will New England commit to their slot man long-term? Or will they franchise him and look for other options in free agency and/or the draft? 

The answer to this question will dictate their approach to the offseason.   

If the New York Giants hope for regular Super Bowl appearances, they can do no better than to study the team they victimized last February 4. The dynastic New England Patriots won the AFC East eight of the last nine seasons. The sole miss came in 2008 when the Pats, without Tom Brady for most of the season, finished 11-5 but lost the tiebreaker to the Miami Dolphins and ended up becoming the first 11-win team in 23 years to miss the playoffs.

The Patriots have appeared in five Super Bowls since 2001, winning three. Their last two appearances were losses to the Giants, but the Patriots prove that dominating the division is the first step to dynastic intent.

That's not good news for the G-men, due as much to the nature of their "Beast" rivals as because of deficiencies in their own talent.

The Philadelphia Eagles showed division dominance early in the decade, but only clinched the NFC East twice since the 2004 season. They also struggled to make a deep playoff run without Terrell Owens. This year, Andy Reid went all out to boost the Eagles defense by collecting talent and shifting the pass rush to the Wide-9 alignment under Juan Castillo, their former offensive line coach. Someone should have cautioned Philadelphia about expecting instant results. 

The Eagles lost eight of their first 12 games as the defense struggled and QB Michael Vick regressed from his 2010 performance. However, the defense closed strong to push the Eagles to wins in its last four games, and Philadelphia dominated the NFC East 5-1 en route to an 8-8 finish.

The Dallas Cowboys have also won two division titles since 2004. Like the Eagles, they did not go far in the postseason either time. The Cowboys dumped ineffective WR Row Williams and found a budding star in RB DeMarco Murray. Thanks in large part to New York's inability to put the division away, the Cowboys were in the playoff hunt until the Week 17 showdown with the Giants. The G-men opened a 34-14 can of whoopass on the 'Boys to finally clinch a playoff berth.

The Washington Redskins are an afterthought, competitive on defense, but with the worst quarterback situation in the NFC East.

Once the Giants get into the playoffs, their recent record proves them to be as dangerous as any team in the nation. However, their regular season competition stands as the biggest obstacle between them and a dynastic reign over the next few years. The Eagles in particular stack up as the biggest threat to New York's division dominance. How do the Giants stack up against the Eagles and the rest of the division? And how will this arms race affect the Giants' offseason plans? 

The Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 record in 2011 was very misleading. The team fielded the 6th best defense in the league despite struggling to keep defenders healthy, especially in the secondary. Yes, the Jaguars had major issues on the offensive side of the ball, but those problems are treatable in the short term.

In 2012, everything will begin and end with Blaine Gabbert. He made slow progress through much of the season, showing measurable progress only in the latter quarter of the season. To his credit, Gabbert was able to show leadership despite a lack of offensive weapons beyond running back Maurice Jones-Drew. That should change in 2012.

Jaguars general manager Gene Smith has said that the Jaguars will be approaching the offense, especially the wide receiver position, in the same way that they approached the defense last season. Aggressively. The Jaguars will likely combine picking up top level talent in free agency with April's draft to give Blaine Gabbert the offensive weapons he needs to succeed.

New owner Shahid Khan has also been supportive of spending money to win games. He's shown support to the idea of spending close to the salary cap, so it's unlikely the Jaguars will continue to be as reserved as they've been in the past.

The question in Jacksonville is no longer "if" they'll spend money. The question has turned to "who" they'll be spending money on. There are a number of top-tier free agents that they'll be looking into adding to their roster on both sides of the ball.

Dominos fall quickly in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers were widely assumed to be using their franchise player tag on TE Jermichael Finley, and let in-demand backup quarterback Matt Flynn walk. Those circumstances changed dramatically when Ted Thompson came to a two-year agreement with Finley. Within minutes of the announcement of that news, Packers beat reporter Tom Silverstein turned the spotlight to Flynn.

@TomSilverstein: I anticipate the #Packers using the franchise tag on Flynn now. They'll take the $14 million cap hit and then deal him to somebody.

Parsing the rumors floating around online, that unnamed "somebody" essentially boils down to one of two teams - the Seattle Seahawks or the Miami Dolphins. Acquiring Flynn for a big-dollar contract based on his paper-thin body of work already seemed like a risky proposition. Sending high draft picks to Green Bay in the process makes the Kevin Kolb deal look positively sane by comparison.

(How goofy was that deal for Kolb? Arizona can't shake the Matt Flynn rumors this offseason. Could any team really pull off two high-risk trade-and-signs for someone else's benchwarmer in two years?)

For history's sake, let's see where Flynn ranks among recent backups who were acquired to become starters, and for what cost.

1995: Mark Brunell traded to Jacksonville for a 3rd and 5th round pick. 

Brunell, a fifth-round pick in 1993, was Brett Favre's backup in Green Bay for two seasons, throwing a total of 27 passes in the pros when the expansion Jaguars made a deal to acquire him as their starter. Brunell's success (making it to the AFC Championship game in year 2) helped push up the price tag for future deals like this.   

2001: Matt Hasselbeck traded to Seattle for an exchange of 1st round picks, plus a 3rd rounder.

Hasselbeck had a strong supporter in Mike Holmgren, who had drafted him as Favre's backup in 1998 and migrated to coffee country the following year. Like Brunell, Hasselbeck had only thrown a handful of passes (29 to be exact) before being put in trade talks. Despite giving up a first rounder in the deal, Seattle didn't pay too heavy a price. They had the 7th and 10th picks in that draft, and sacrificed the 10th pick for the Packers' 17th, which they turned into potential Hall of Fame caliber guard Steve Hutchinson. 

Hasselbeck himself was either overrated or underrated as a passer for most of his career, depending on who you talked to. But as far as deals go, the Seahawks got a solid long-term starter for a couple handfuls of draft value points.

2004: Matt Schaub traded to Houston for an exchange of 1st round picks, plus a pair of 2nd rounders. 

Houston was in pretty desperate straits after the David Carr experiment had finally ground to a merciful halt. They targeted a relatively high-profile backup in Matt Schaub, a former third-rounder who had thrown 161 passes (along with 6 TDs and 6 INTs) over three seasons in Michael Vick's stead. The Texans paid a hefty price in 2nd round picks, often the most valuable in the draft, and swapped down two spots from #8 overall to #10 to make the deal work. 

2009: Matt Cassel (and Mike Vrabel) traded to Kansas City for a 2nd round pick.

Cassel offers a nearly exact comparable to Flynn's situation, at least from a contract standpoint. After spending seven total years on the bench - four at USC, three in New England - Cassel's name was finally called in relief of Tom Brady. Fully steeped in Josh McDaniels' offense, Cassel threw for 3,693 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs and led the Patriots to an 11-5 record... but amazingly, no playoff spot. Here, the timeline gets a little dicey.

On January 5th, 2009, it was reported that GM Scott Pioli would place the franchise tag on Cassel to keep him out of reach while the team worked out a deal. Less than ten days later, Pioli was hired as GM of the Kansas City Chiefs. On February 5th, the Pats officially placed the tag on Cassel. February 28th, Pioli consummated the deal to bring him to western Missouri.

The deal was relatively friendly in terms of picks, compared to these others, though whether that was a reflection on Cassel's contract requirements or just a gentleman's agreement between Pioli and Belichick is unknown. Regardless, Cassel was still an unrestricted free agent, and that July Pioli signed him to a six-year $63 million megadeal.

(Note: Thanks to @TheSteelersNat for the reminder on Cassel.)     

2011: Kevin Kolb traded to Arizona for a 2nd round pick and former first-rounder Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. 

The success of Brunell pushed up the price tag for Hasselbeck, whose success pushed up the price for Schaub, whose success pushed up the price for Kolb. Kolb's experience in the league - four years played, 7 games started, and more than 300 passes thrown - made for a double-edged sword for the Cardinals, who felt obliged (by Kolb's agent) to sign the quarterback to a long-term deal.

By comparison with these players, Flynn has thrown fewer passes than Schaub (132), but played just as long as Kolb, putting the team that acquires him in immediate contract jeopardy. The Packers are apparently willing to up the ante by putting the franchise tag on him, apparently being willing to pay him $14 million dollars to sit on the bench if no one bites. (In case you were wondering, Aaron Rodgers is scheduled to make $8 million this season.)

Regardless of Kolb's lukewarm start, the price tag in these deals keeps rising. Is Flynn worth a first round pick and a huge contract to any team? Joe Philbin and Stephen Ross in Miami just might have something to say about that.

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The Detroit Lions took a massive leap forward as a team in 2011, returning to the playoffs for the first time since 1999, as Matt Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards and Calvin Johnson led the league in receiving yards en route to being an almost-unanimous All-Pro selection. Their stay in the playoffs would prove short-lived, though, as the New Orleans Saints moved the ball virtually at will. The Saints did that on the heels of Week 17's game against the Green Bay Packers, when a Matt Flynn-led offense did the same. If the Lions are to be a serious Super Bowl contender, they'll need to avoid those defensive disasters in the future. What do they have to do to avoid them, and what role might Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley play going forward?

The first question Lions general manager Martin Mayhew and head coach Jim Schwartz have to answer is, how good exactly was their defense in 2011? Was it as bad as it looked those final two games, when they gave up 45 points both games, the Packers rolled up 469 yards passing and 550 yards total offense and the Saints 459 yards passing and 626 yards total offense?

The answer, somewhat surprisingly, seems to be that it was better than you think, and a lot better than the final two games would indicate. The question is how this self-evaluation will lead this team's approach to the offseason. 

Alex Smith has worn a San Francisco 49ers uniform for seven years now. 2011 marks the first time his team has finished above 18th in the league in points. And while he was called upon to manage games for most of the regular season, the playoffs provided a revelation. 

Alex Smith, a former bust who has had to struggle his way to mediocrity, outgunned the mighty Drew Brees at the end of of a memorable division-round matchup with the New Orleans Saints. It showed a side of Smith that few had ever seen in the pros, or even guessed was possible. Consider it his Eli Manning moment. He stood uncharacteristically strong in the pocket and fearlessly launched passes deep down the seam and peppered the sidelines, connecting with fellow first-rounders Ted Ginn, Michael Crabtree and his secret weapon, Vernon Davis. 

As revelatory as that game was, it also raised the stakes for Smith's play as a passer. For the first time since Steve Young was taking snaps, the 49ers won a playoff game on quarterback play. But the following week against the Giants, Smith found himself without Ginn, with no faith in Crabtree, and with Vernon Davis bracketed by double and triple coverage. 

At that point, the difference between Alex and Eli, fellow #1 overall picks, was starkly apparent. Eli has weapons, plural. Smith has a weapon - Davis - and a couple of warm bodies. With little else to improve on this offseason, finding new targets in the passing game has to be priority one for San Francisco.

But how will they do it? Who will they target? That's the burning question for this offseason. 

Consider this burning question answered by the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles will apply the franchise tag to DeSean Jackson, the team's biggest question mark this offseason, to keep him in green for one more season. Next question: Then what?

Count on one thing. Jackson will not see a day of free agency. The Eagles have no other choice.

Jackson was a second round 2008 Draft pick who blew away concern for his small size by scoring 24 total touchdowns in his first three seasons in the league, none more dramatic than his 65-yard punt return for a score in the Eagles' improbable 21-point comeback against the Giants in December 2010.

DeSean is the Eagles' rock star whose talent is not easily replaced. The Chiefs are sure to find a way to keep Dwayne Bowe. The Saints may do the same with Marques Colston. Vincent Jackson will be an unrestricted free agent, but he is three years older than Jackson is and he would have to transition from Norv Turner's downfield offense to Andy Reid's West Coast Offense. There are no free agent alternatives to Jackson.      

The Eagles might strike gold in the NFL Draft as they did with Jackson, but DeSean is the known commodity. Why take that risk? Then again, conventional wisdom says, why take the risk of signing him long term next season, if you think you can strike gold in the draft? 

In a article at GQ, we're being treated to an insightful look into the life of Tim Tebow's backup quarterback, Brady Quinn. Quinn, who remained silent most of the season, rips Tim Tebow and the culture that has grown around Tebow. Said Quinn,

"...I felt like the fans had a lot to do with that. Just 'cause they were chanting his name. There was a big calling for him. No, I didn't have any billboards. That would have been nice."

Quinn didn't directly rip Tebow in the article. Instead, he takes a more civil, covert approach when he explains why Tebow was so successful late in games,

"The entire game, the defensive line is chasing the quarterback around, and that wears down the pass rush. Meanwhile, the defensive backs are chasing receivers, but you only throw eight passes, so they start to feel lazy. It only takes that one play, that one big pass, for a touchdown."

On one hand, I do feel sorry for Brady Quinn. He had high hopes when he was drafted by the Cleveland Browns, but he never produced. I've affectionately known him as "Captain Checkdown" because of his unimpressive 5.39 career yards per pass attempt.

All that being said, Quinn brings up a valid point. Maybe Tim Tebow isn't that great. Perhaps the defensive backs are in fact getting complacent over the course of the game, opening up big play opportunities late in the game.

At the end of the day, Quinn's comments do little to help him further his career. He comes off as being childish and whiny by publicly making statements such as the ones above, even if those statements are completely relevant and valid arguments.

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The age curve for NFL running backs is a brutal thing, and at the age of 30, is it finally catching up with Michael Turner?

Matt Ryan is carrying more and more of the offensive load, partly by design and partly by necessity as Turner rapidly disappears from the game plan. In Ryan's rookie year, the Falcons' running plays outnumbered their passing plays by 126. Last year, with Julio Jones bracketing Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez working the inside, their passing plays outnumbered their runs by 140. Do the Falcons get balance back into their offense? If so, who carries the rock?  

The Falcons have skill on offense with quarterback Matt Ryan, tight end Tony Gonzalez, running back Michael Turner, and receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, but the running game and the red-zone offense have wobbled at times.

They finished the 2011 season 10-6, but they beat just two teams with winning records, Detroit and Tennessee. They were clobbered on the road by New Orleans, 45-16, yet fought the Saints and the Packers at home before losing close games to both.

As much as it seemed to disappear throughout the season, based on the team's 2011 performance, you could easily call running back a position of strength for the Atlanta Falcons.  That fact is, Turner is not going anywhere… at least not yet.