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What's the 'best' draft strategy?

Written by Shane Clemons on .

Every team in the NFL takes a different approach to the draft process. Some teams adhere to the so-called "best available player" strategy, or BAP. Others declare themselves to draft on the basis of needs, such as the Atlanta Falcons. Still others use other obscure ways of picking their players. The Raiders for instance used to seemingly draft on the basis of pure athleticism, and the Lions under Matt Millen seemingly went for the most over-hyped available player. With the draft just days away, what is the best strategy?

The easiest answer to that question is there is no best strategy, but that seems like something of a cop-out. By that, I mean that most draft strategies can work if they're properly executed. If, however, the strategy isn't executed well, it will almost always fail.

The fact of the matter is that the NFL draft is often a crap shoot. There's no such thing as a "safe pick." The reality of dangerous picks, however, does exist. The Raiders and the Lions, until recently, made their draft day fortunes taking dangerous picks. The Lions simply picked bust after bust while the Raiders picked on the basis of athletic ability instead of football ability.

Of the two predominant draft strategies, BAP and needs based drafting, the needs based style is the safer route. By filling needs with the draft, areas of necessity will never go un-addressed. On the other hand, best available player drafting can often result in drafting a player that plays at a position of strength. Yes, that position will get stronger, but vulnerabilities are then left to be filled in free agency by stop-gap players.

In short, needs based drafting provides more flexibility in the draft process than BAP drafting, but they have both been successful for teams around the league. Ultimately, it comes down to individual teams' abilities to identify good football players. In other words, it's all about the finished product and not the process. Whatever gets you there is good enough, so long as you actually get there.


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How an actual Ultimate Mock Draft would go down

Written by Brad Gagnon on .

Stealing an idea from Yahoo! Sports' Michael Silver here. We take a break from real draft analysis and make every player in the league available in the "Ultimate Mock Draft." But while Silver goes heavy on the quarterbacks, we're taking it to a whole new level. You can't win in this league without a good one, so we're giving signal callers to the first 20 teams on the draft board. The final 12 are just screwed. 

1. Kansas City Chiefs: QB Aaron Rodgers -- Not even a debate; the highest-rated quarterback in NFL history.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Andrew Luck -- Yeah, already. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are too old. 

3. Oakland Raiders: QB Robert Griffin III -- Yeah, already. Same rule applies.

4. Philadelphia Eagles: QB Cam Newton -- One of the best rookie seasons in NFL history and about to break out. Built for Chip Kelly.

5. Detroit Lions: QB Tom Brady -- I think Brady is worth the 10-year sacrifice from Matthew Stafford. 

6. Cleveland Browns: QB Peyton Manning -- Unlike when he was a free agent, Manning doesn't have choice this time.

7. Arizona Cardinals: QB Drew Brees -- Not-so-shiny 2012 campaign hurt his stock a bit. 

8. Buffalo Bills: QB Matt Ryan -- Only 27 and coming off of the best year of his career. 

9. New York Jets: QB Ben Roethlisberger -- Two-time Super Bowl champion has plenty of gas left in the tank.

10. Tennessee Titans: QB Russell Wilson -- League's highest-rated quarterback during the second half of 2012.

11. San Diego Chargers: QB Eli Manning -- And again, a Manning without a choice this time around. Unlike in the 2004 draft.

12. Miami Dolphins: QB Joe Flacco -- Defending Super Bowl MVP. Dolphins upgrade on Ryan Tannehill.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Andy Dalton -- Has the makeup of a franchise quarterback and better than Josh Freeman.

14. Carolina Panthers: QB Matthew Stafford -- Needs to become more consistent, but he's only 25 years old.

15. New Orleans Saints: QB Tony Romo -- A steal this late, but he's no spring chicken anymore.

16. St. Louis Rams: QB Sam Bradford -- Plenty happy to get their young No. 1 overall pick back here. 

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Philip Rivers -- Another stud quarterback from that 2004 draft, but one who has struggled of late.

18. Dallas Cowboys: QB Matt Schaub -- Consistently productive signal caller stays in the state of Texas.

19. New York Giants: QB Josh Freeman -- Still a potentially bright future as a franchise quarterback. 

20. Chicago Bears: QB Jay Cutler -- They get their starter back, which is lucky at this point. 

21. Cincinnati Bengals: DE J.J. Watt -- They lose Andy Dalton but land the best non-quarterback in the league. 

22. Washington Redskins: OLB Von Miller -- No RG3 but they add the best pure pass-rusher in the league.

23. Minnesota Vikings: RB Adrian Peterson -- They land the only back worthy of the first round, and he's their own in real life too.

24. Indianapolis Colts: OLB Aldon Smith -- Next best pass-rusher, please. 

25. Seattle Seahawks: WR Calvin Johnson -- The most dominant receiver in the game, and it isn't even close.

26. Green Bay Packers: DT Geno Atkins -- Best player available for Mike McCarthy. 

27. Houston Texans: WR Andre Johnson -- Why not start rebuilding with your best player?

28. Denver Broncos: WR Larry Fitzgerald -- Poor Fitz. No quarterback in Denver either.

29. New England Patriots: TE Rob Gronkowski -- Most dominant tight end in the game back in Foxboro without Brady.

30. Atlanta Falcons: DE Jason Pierre-Paul -- It's either him or their home-grown boy, Julio Jones.

31. San Francisco 49ers: QB Colin Kaepernick -- They'll take him back as sort of a limbo quarterback.

32. Baltimore Ravens: LB Patrick Willis -- Not a bad way to replace Ray Lewis. 

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Only Tampa Bay sought Revis trade

Written by Shane Clemons on .

As we begin to get details on what ultimately sent Darrelle Revis to Tampa Bay for a 1st round pick and a 4th round pick (turns into a 3rd round pick if Revis sticks with the Bucs), we're gaining enough information to conclude whether the Bucs won, the Jets won, or a bit of both.

Last week, trade talks between the Bucs and the Jets seemed to cool. The Jets seemed to be under the impression, or delusion, that other  teams were interested in trading for their star cornerback. Those other teams never materialized for the Jets.

According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the only team ever interested in paying the Jets' high price for Revis. "Per a source with knowledge of the process, it was always Tampa — and only Tampa," Florio wrote.

The Jets' game here is still somewhat unknown. It appeared that the Jets never attempted to make a full effort to secure Revis' services after it appeared he was unhappy with the situation in New York. Revis accepting a contract with no guaranteed money from the Buccaneers seems to confirm that point.

Still, the Jets may have gotten off easy. Being the only team interested in trading for a player the Jets weren't willing to pay, the Buccaneers paid a higher price than I would have thought an injured cornerback would warrant. The good news is that the only risk the Bucs have in he deal is the draft picks they sacrificed to trade for Revis.

We won't know who "won" in this trade for some time; specifically, we won't know until Revis proves himself or falls flat, but at this point, it looks like both teams made moves that were less than ideal for their franchises.


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Darrelle Revis to Bucs trade seems imminent

Written by Shane Clemons on .

After a long period of going back and forth, it appears that the Buccaneers and the Jets have the general terms of a trade that would bring Darrelle Revis to Tampa Bay.

Yahoo's Jason Cole is reporting that the Buccaneers and the Jets have come to an agreement on the framework of a trade that would send cornerback Darrelle Revis from New York to Tampa Bay.

The report doesn't give us the specifics of a potential trade, but it certainly involves a very steep price. That price tag will likely cost the Buccaneers a first round pick, whether it's this season or next offseason's pick.

At face value, this is a win, win deal. Darrelle Revis would have likely voided the rest of his contract after the 2013 season, freeing him up to sign on with a new team during free agency in 2014. By unloading him now, the Jets were able to capitalize on his high value as a player. For the Buccaneers, Revis gives them an elite shutdown corner. If Revis makes a full comeback from his ACL injury, he may be the best cornerback in the league.

In the short term, the trade will help the Buccaneers become more competitive, but I have to wonder if the terms of the trade won't favor the Jets over the long haul. Essentially, the Buccaneers will be giving up a lot of draft value for a player that may never be the same again. It's a risk the Bucs are apparently willing to take.


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Sanchez thinks Jets brought the 'circus' on themselves

Written by Shane Clemons on .

The Jets had more distractions last season than any other team in the NFL. Their "circus" was a result of unrealistic expectations and unneeded distractions from the media and fans. Tim Tebow didn't help matters any.

In an interview with Fox Sports Radio's Petros and Money show, Mark Sanchez took what is perhaps a parting shot at Tim Tebow. While Tebow remains with the team at the moment, it seems very unlikely the Jets would keep him on their roster for another season.

"I just don’t know if it was the best situation for either of us, but you play with the cards you are dealt with and do the very best you can," Sanchez said in regard to the media's coverage of Tim Tebow [via the New York Daily News]. "Well, I think part of that, too, is ESPN didn’t necessarily sneak in overnight at our training camp. They had to get permission to go. You can avoid that stuff on your own if you like, in my opinion, but he’s a popular guy and people gravitate towards the guy."

"He’s a special person and a heck of a competitor, so people want to know what’s going on, but that’s all I got on that."

In other words, the Jets should have avoided bringing Tim Tebow into the fold in the first place. While everyone is aware that Tim Tebow is a good guy, he's a distraction that, for my money, should be avoided by every single team in the NFL. He just brings too much media hype for the production. He's just not worth it, and the Jets figured that out the hard way.


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Lions, Falcons could be movers in the draft

Written by Shane Clemons on .

Mock drafts are useless. It's something that almost any NFL analyst would admit to, but they're also fun to play around with. That's why they're so prevalent especially in the final days leading up to the draft.

One of the problems with mock drafts is that we never know just who will trade picks, moving up or down in the draft order. One such move can completely shift the rest of the drafting process.

Two teams that may make moves appear to be the Detroit Lions (currently picking 5th overall) and the Atlanta Falcons (currently picking 30th overall).

The Lions' general manager, Martin Mayhew denied rumors that the Lions were looking to move up to the top of the draft order (via the Detroit Free Press), but he didn't outright state that the Lions won't be moving in the draft either. One potential trading partner could be Jacksonville, a team that may want out of the second slot to gain some value before picking their player (perhaps Geno Smith).

Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff may be more actively searching for a trading partner, although it's not clear if/who the Falcons may want to move up to pick from the top end of the draft.

"If you feel that you want to package picks to go up and get the player that you feel can help the team, well, then you use your draft picks as fodder to go after that player," Dimitroff told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

We'll be hearing more and more about potential trades as draft day creeps ever closer, but it's worth keeping in mind that this year's draft class is perceived as lacking home-run players. Trades may be more abundant after the top end of the first round.


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Clay Matthews fully deserves to be the highest-paid linebacker in the NFL

Written by Brad Gagnon on .

While almost everyone else with cap space has spent the offseason trying to upgrade on the free-agent market, the Green Bay Packers have stayed off of the market while focusing instead on taking care of their own key cogs. Quarterback and top offensive weapon Aaron Rodgers is fully expected to sign a long-term extension at some point this offseason, and now top defensive player Clay Matthews has been locked up long-term with a five-year, $66 million deal. 

The deal makes Matthews the highest-paid linebacker in the league, which makes perfect sense. Despite being hampered by injury and missing a quarter of the 2012 season, the 26-year-old was rated by Pro Football Focus as the best pass-rushing 3-4 outside linebacker in the game last year. He continued to be a versatile force, but it's truly amazing that he had 13 sacks in just 12 games while being less than 100 percent in others. 

The four-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro has had double-digit sacks in three of his four NFL seasons. The one year he didn't hit that mark, he was rushing the passer less. That season (2011), he instead had three interceptions, nine passes defensed, a career-high three forced fumbles and a touchdown. 

Matthews should be very, very good for many years to come, and should be in the defensive player of the year conversation on an annual basis.

The Packers know that the key to success in this league is to be successful at throwing the ball and stopping those who throw the ball. Rodgers throws it better than anyone in the game, and Matthews might very well be the NFL's best when it comes to stopping those throwers on defense. By ensuring that those two are going to be Packers long term, even at record prices, Green Bay is setting itself up for one hell of a future. 

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Pat Summerall remembered

Written by Shane Clemons on .

Growing up in the 90s and early 2000s, football was always my favorite sport, and the combination of Pat Summerall and John Madden was the best broadcasting duo on television. Yesterday, the football world lost Pat Summerall, but he's one of the few broadcasters that transcended the game.

Today, the football world moves on in offseason activities. As they say, the show must go on. The above video, produced by the NFL Network, is about as good a memorial video as one can possibly make. Pat Summerall left a lasting mark on the game of football and his fans. May he rest in peace.

Pat Summerall: May 10, 1930 to April 16, 2013


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Oregon reports 'major violation' during Chip Kelly era

Written by Shane Clemons on .

In sports, true coincidences are rarely, if ever, actually observed. It was no coincidence that Pete Carroll left a great gig at USC to coach the Seattle Seahawks, and now it appears that Chip Kelly left Oregon for similar reasons.

According to Adam Jude of the Oregonian, the University of Oregon is now admitting that its coaches "committed at least one major violation," during recruiting between the years of 2008 to 2011. The admission will likely put Oregon in hot water, but since Chip Kelly is now with the Eagles, he's essentially untouchable.

The admission is just another example that illustrates one of the predominant problems in colleges athletics. Big programs will cheat to get ahead. It's that simple. In essence, it's a black market system set up by the NCAA's rules against paying college athletes. The truth of the matter is that if paying for athletes' college was fair payment, extra payment wouldn't exist.

Like Pete Carroll before him, Chip Kelly appears to have gotten out of Dodge, er - Oregon, at the right time. We're not saying he saw it coming, but we are saying something smells of rotten eggs.


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Manning still wants Stokley back

Written by Shane Clemons on .

Peyton Manning and Brandon Stokley have a long history together, first in Indianapolis and last season in Denver. Still, the addition of Wes Welker seemed to close the door on Brandon Stokley returning to the Broncos for another season with Manning.

Even so, Peyton Manning is not ready to concede that Stokley won't be back later in the offseason. "I think it’s well documented how I feel about Brandon as a player and a friend, and with the kind of season he had last year, I would still like to play with him," Manning said at the Broncos' voluntary offseason workouts. "In a perfect world I would love for both of them to be on the team this year. . . . Stokley is a great friend of mine, and as I’ve said all along, he’s always been one of my favorite teammates ever to play with."

In all reality, Manning's hope that there will be a place for Brandon Stokley isn't all the crazy. While Stokley's role has been filled by Welker, there's no harm in having a guy to give Welker a breather from time to time. In addition, if Welker were to get injured, and that's a distinct possibility considering the routes he has to run, having Stokley on the roster would mean that the Broncos' offense wouldn't miss a beat.

Right now, it seems as if Brandon Stokley won't be on the Broncos' roster in the immediate future, but Peyton Manning does have some pull over personnel decision, at least he should in regard to his wide receiving corp. Don't be surprised if Stokley and the Broncos come together for another season.


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